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Sporting California USA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 44 minutes ago.
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15th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-12 goal diff · 3–15
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.9
+1.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Sporting California USA
15th · 0.00 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf
16th · 0.00 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.5 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USALV Heat Surf
Position15th16th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-40-0-3
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game0.80.0
Goals against / game3.84.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L L L LL L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss1–6 vs Legends FC0–5 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.37-1.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.00+1.27

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 1–6; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs Legends FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Blues.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 23% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Heritage Park Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Arizona Arsenal sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.20 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 17th▼ down 2
Win
0.60 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Draw
0.20 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 17th▼ down 2
Loss
0.00 PPG		 16th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 45%
  16. 16th 30%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Blues 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.28) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 LA Breakers 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.05) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+2.60) 1st (2.49) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Legends FC 2.17 (+2.17) 4th (2.05) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.82) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Rebels SC 2.00 (+2.00) 6th (1.77) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Phoenix Rising FC 1.67 (+1.67) 7th (1.54) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 SLAMMERS FC 1.60 (+1.60) 8th (1.47) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 Slammers FC HB Koge 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.43) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.40 (+1.40) 11th (1.27) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.39) 16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
12 LAFC 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (1.10) 16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
13 Eagles SC 0.80 (+0.80) 12th (1.13) 13 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 Arizona Arsenal 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.91) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 5–0 0–4 2–0 Sporting California… 15th Legends FC 4th Blues 1st LV Heat Surf 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.55 0.31 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM		 Eagles SC
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.83 0.40 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–1 0.93 0.47 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.50 0.48 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.43 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Phoenix Rising FC
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 0–2 0.73 0.46 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LAFC
12th · 1-2-2 · GD -3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.07 0.52 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 LA Breakers
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.30 0.50 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Rebels SC
6th · 2-2-0 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.34 0.49 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 Legends FC - Del Mar
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -35		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–0 2.62 0.64 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
11th · 1-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.53 0.63 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.12 0.66 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Blues 3300 112+9 93.00 WWW +0.42 -0.20 93% 2.4
2 LA Breakers 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.15 -0.02 64% 4.0
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 211+20 132.60 WWWDW -0.92 +0.19 99% 1.5
4 Legends FC 6411 207+13 132.17 LWWWD -0.29 +0.00 75% 3.7
5 San Diego Surf 6402 219+12 122.00 WWLWL -0.53 +0.24 30% 5.5
6 Rebels SC 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -0.32 +0.09 26% 5.9
7 Phoenix Rising FC 6312 87+1 101.67 LWWLD +0.00 -0.03 6% 8.0
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 74+3 81.60 LWWDD -0.65 +0.27 4% 8.6
9 Slammers FC HB Koge 6303 98+1 91.50 LWLWL +0.04 -0.04 1% 9.0
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 57-2 71.40 LWLDW +0.10 -0.04 0% 10.6
11 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4112 55+0 41.00 WLLD +0.49 -0.18 1% 9.3
12 LAFC 5122 36-3 51.00 LDDWL +0.08 -0.02 0% 12.1
13 Eagles SC 5113 89-1 40.80 LLDLW -0.45 +0.17 0% 11.6
14 Arizona Arsenal 3003 26-4 00.00 LLL +0.31 -0.03 0% 13.4
15 Sporting California USA 4004 315-12 00.00 LLLL +1.00 -0.23 0% 14.9
16 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.27 -0.18 0% 15.5
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 6006 035-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.68 -0.05 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.