TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
2-2-0 record · 4 played
2.00 points per game
+5 goal diff · 8–3
WDWDlast 4
26% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
-0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:45 PM

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Rebels SC
6th · 2.00 PPG
vs
Legends FC
4th · 2.17 PPG

El Cajon Valley High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCLegends FC
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-04-1-1
Points per game2.002.17
Goals for / game2.03.3
Goals against / game0.81.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D W D WD W W W L
Biggest win4–0 at Legends FC - Del Mar5–0 at LV Heat Surf
Worst loss—0–2 at Blues
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.59+1.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.32-0.29

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.80 PPG		 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Win
2.20 PPG		 4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2
Draw
1.80 PPG		 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.60 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
26% top 4
74% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Blues 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.28) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 LA Breakers 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.05) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+0.60) 1st (2.49) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Legends FC 2.17 (+0.17) 4th (2.05) A point next game
5 San Diego Surf 2.00 (+0.00) 5th (1.82) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
5 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 4–0 0–5 1–1 2–1 2–2 2–0 4–0 0–2 2–1 2–1 1–6 0–2 2–3 0–0 0–4 0–6 Rebels SC 6th Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 3rd LAFC 12th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 9th LV Heat Surf 16th Phoenix Rising FC 7th Sporting California… 15th Beach Futbol Club G… 11th Eagles SC 13th Legends FC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
03:45 PM
no score posted		 Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–0 1.99 2.00 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
01:45 PM		 Legends FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.21 1.87 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
Monte Vista High School · grass		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.18 1.91 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
05:30 PM		 San Diego Surf
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +12		 Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.44 1.85 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Phoenix Rising FC
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +1		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.52 1.82 Upside
Sun Nov 22
08:30 AM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
11th · 1-1-2 · GD +0		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.78 1.81 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 2–0 2.49 1.87 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Blues
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–1 0.86 1.79 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM		 LA Breakers
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.20 1.74 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +3		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.42 1.72 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Sporting California USA
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 2–0 2.54 1.78 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 Eagles SC
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.72 1.77 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Blues 3300 112+9 93.00 WWW +0.42 -0.20 92% 2.5
2 LA Breakers 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.15 -0.02 64% 4.0
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 211+20 132.60 WWWDW -0.92 +0.19 99% 1.5
4 Legends FC 6411 207+13 132.17 LWWWD -0.29 +0.00 73% 3.7
5 San Diego Surf 6402 219+12 122.00 WWLWL -0.53 +0.24 33% 5.4
6 Rebels SC 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -0.32 +0.09 26% 6.0
7 Phoenix Rising FC 6312 87+1 101.67 LWWLD +0.00 -0.03 5% 8.0
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 74+3 81.60 LWWDD -0.65 +0.27 4% 8.6
9 Slammers FC HB Koge 6303 98+1 91.50 LWLWL +0.04 -0.04 2% 9.0
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 57-2 71.40 LWLDW +0.10 -0.04 0% 10.7
11 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4112 55+0 41.00 WLLD +0.49 -0.18 2% 9.3
12 LAFC 5122 36-3 51.00 LDDWL +0.08 -0.02 0% 12.1
13 Eagles SC 5113 89-1 40.80 LLDLW -0.45 +0.17 0% 11.6
14 Arizona Arsenal 3003 26-4 00.00 LLL +0.31 -0.03 0% 13.3
15 Sporting California USA 4004 315-12 00.00 LLLL +1.00 -0.23 0% 14.8
16 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.27 -0.18 0% 15.5
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 6006 035-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.68 -0.05 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.