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Utah Royals FC-AZ RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Utah Royals FC - AZ (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+20 goal diff · 21–1
WWWDWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.92 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 22, 09:00 AM

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Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
3rd · 2.60 PPG
vs
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0.00 PPG

Bell Road Sports Complex, Field 15 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.78 expected points)

Season so farUtah Royals FC-AZ RLArizona Arsenal
Position3rd14th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-00-0-3
Points per game2.600.00
Goals for / game4.20.7
Goals against / game0.22.0
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W D W W WL L L
Biggest win10–0 at Legends FC - Del Mar—
Worst loss—0–2 at Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.22-0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.92+0.31

Common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC — we 2–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Arizona Arsenal average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Arizona Arsenal have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arizona Arsenal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Royals FC-AZ RL – Arizona Arsenal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.17 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

71% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 71%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Blues 3.00 (+0.40) 2nd (2.28) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 LA Breakers 3.00 (+0.40) 3rd (2.05) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Royals FC-AZ RL to Arizona Arsenal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 2–1 1–1 2–1 2–0 10–0 0–2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 3rd Phoenix Rising FC 7th Rebels SC 6th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 9th Arizona Arsenal 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.78 2.63 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +1
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
2–0 2.55 2.62 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Sporting California USA
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.66 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LAFC
12th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
2–0 2.66 2.66 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
San Diego Surf
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.40 2.63 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.68 2.64 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
Blues
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.58 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
11th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.36 2.57 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
LA Breakers
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.06 2.53 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +13
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.92 2.49 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.52 2.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Blues 3300 112+9 93.00 WWW +0.42 -0.20 91% 2.5
2 LA Breakers 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.15 -0.02 68% 4.0
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 211+20 132.60 WWWDW -0.92 +0.19 99% 1.4
4 Legends FC 6411 207+13 132.17 LWWWD -0.29 +0.00 71% 3.8
5 San Diego Surf 6402 219+12 122.00 WWLWL -0.53 +0.24 32% 5.4
6 Rebels SC 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -0.32 +0.09 26% 5.9
7 Phoenix Rising FC 6312 87+1 101.67 LWWLD +0.00 -0.03 5% 8.1
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 74+3 81.60 LWWDD -0.65 +0.27 4% 8.6
9 Slammers FC HB Koge 6303 98+1 91.50 LWLWL +0.04 -0.04 2% 8.9
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 57-2 71.40 LWLDW +0.10 -0.04 1% 10.6
11 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4112 55+0 41.00 WLLD +0.49 -0.18 2% 9.3
12 LAFC 5122 36-3 51.00 LDDWL +0.08 -0.02 0% 12.1
13 Eagles SC 5113 89-1 40.80 LLDLW -0.45 +0.17 0% 11.6
14 Arizona Arsenal 3003 26-4 00.00 LLL +0.31 -0.03 0% 13.3
15 Sporting California USA 4004 315-12 00.00 LLLL +1.00 -0.23 0% 14.9
16 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.27 -0.18 0% 15.5
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 6006 035-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.68 -0.05 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.