Week 11 in NorCal GU17: what changed

Sat Oct 24

• Cal Magic (13th) 7–0 (21st) San Francisco Elite Academy

Sun Oct 25

• Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (22nd) 1–4 (11th) Burlingame SC
• Los Gatos United Soccer Club (15th) 5–1 (9th) Solano Surf
• Association FC (16th) 0–2 (5th) Walnut Creek Surf
• San Francisco Elite Academy (21st) 1–6 (2nd) Elk Grove Soccer
• Santa Clara Sporting (23rd) 1–8 (8th) Stanford Strikers
• El Camino FC Salinas (6th) 5–1 (4th) Roseville SC -RL
• MUFC ENCL RL (14th) 4–2 (10th) Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
• Valley United Soccer Club (17th) 0–10 (1st) Livermore Fusion SC
• SF United FC (25th) 0–3 (20th) North Coast FC BLUE

Positions are the table re-sorted after the last game of each week. Odds come from the nightly forecast snapshot nearest each end of the week; a dash means no snapshot exists yet.

• Los Gatos United Soccer Club 5–1 Solano Surf 25% likely
  Sun Oct 25 · model favoured Solano Surf

How likely each result was by today's ratings.

1. Roseville SC -RL (4th) vs Solano Surf (9th) Sun Nov 1
   47% · 17% · 36% — KEY GAME toss-up, zone race on the line
2. Elk Grove Soccer (2nd) vs Folsom Lake Surf (7th) Sun Nov 1
   49% · 18% · 33% — KEY GAME toss-up, zone race on the line
3. Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd) vs Livermore Fusion SC (1st) Sun Nov 1
   13% · 12% · 75% — KEY GAME top-of-table clash
4. El Camino FC Salinas (6th) vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (22nd) Sun Nov 1
   83% · 10% · 7% — KEY GAME zone race on the line
5. North Coast FC BLUE (20th) vs West Coast Soccer Club -RL (18th) Sun Nov 1
   41% · 23% · 37% — KEY GAME toss-up

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