Week 11 in NorCal GU15: what changed

Sun Oct 25

• South Valley Chivas (22nd) 0–5 (3rd) El Dorado Hills SC
• San Francisco Elite Academy (19th) 1–2 (17th) Elk Grove Soccer
• South Valley United Soccer Club (16th) 0–3 (9th) Folsom Lake Surf
• Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (6th) 5–0 (5th) Burlingame SC
• Madera United FC (4th) 7–0 (13th) Santa Cruz United FC
• Reno APEX Soccer Club (15th) 0–1 (1st) Napa United
• SF United FC (11th) 2–3 (14th) North Coast FC BLUE
• Los Gatos United Soccer Club (7th) 4–0 (23rd) Solano Surf
• Association FC (18th) 3–3 (10th) Walnut Creek Surf
• Eastshore Alliance FC (20th) 4–1 (27th) San Ramon FC

Positions are the table re-sorted after the last game of each week. Odds come from the nightly forecast snapshot nearest each end of the week; a dash means no snapshot exists yet.

• San Francisco Elite Academy 1–2 Elk Grove Soccer 20% likely
  Sun Oct 25 · model favoured San Francisco Elite Academy
• SF United FC 2–3 North Coast FC BLUE 24% likely
  Sun Oct 25 · model favoured SF United FC

How likely each result was by today's ratings.

1. South Valley Chivas (22nd) vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (6th) Sun Nov 1
   13% · 15% · 72% — KEY GAME zone race on the line
2. SF United FC (11th) vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club (7th) Sun Nov 1
   30% · 22% · 49% — KEY GAME toss-up
3. Reno APEX Soccer Club (15th) vs Livermore Fusion SC (2nd) Sun Nov 1
   16% · 18% · 66% — KEY GAME form check
4. East County Revolution FC (12th) vs South Valley United Soccer Club (16th) Sun Nov 1
   73% · 15% · 12% — KEY GAME form check
5. Elk Grove Soccer (17th) vs Folsom Lake Surf (9th) Sun Nov 1
   17% · 22% · 60% — KEY GAME form check

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