SAFC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU16 · 17 teams · San Antonio FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.4 against · 1.66 expected points)
| Season so far | SAFC STXCL | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W D | D W W L L |
| Biggest win | 4–2 at Houstonians FC STXCL | 4–0 vs Imperial SC STXCL |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 0–3 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.17 | -0.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | -0.48 |
Common opponents: MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL — we 0–2; they 3–5. RISE SC STXCL — we 1–1; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL, 0–2 at FC Westlake STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 23% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold sit 9th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.67.A point moves us above Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SAFC STXCL – Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.57 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
7th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 3 | 8th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 31%
- 8th 21%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 2%
- 13th 1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.33) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 2.50 (+0.83) | 3rd (2.18) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Westlake STXCL | 2.40 (+0.73) | 4th (2.10) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 4 | AHFC NW STXCL | 2.20 (+0.53) | 2nd (2.28) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 2.17 (+0.50) | 5th (2.01) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 2.00 (+0.33) | 6th (1.91) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | MAFC STXCL Red | 1.80 (+0.13) | 8th (1.37) | A point next game |
| 8 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 1.80 (+0.13) | 11th (1.18) | A point next game |
| 9 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 1.67 (+0.00) | 9th (1.36) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link SAFC STXCL to Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 16th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 9th · 3-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
LTFC STXCL 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
AHFC NW STXCL 4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–2 | 0.66 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
Imperial SC STXCL 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -29 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 1.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.03 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
SG1 STXCL 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM |
JSAFC STXCL 15th · 0-2-3 · GD -4 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–0 | 1.87 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 04:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A 8th · 3-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 02:00 PM |
Lions FC STXCL Red 12th · 1-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.82 | 1.60 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.41 | +0.06 | 90% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at SG1 STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.01 | -0.11 | 77% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Westlake STXCL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.41 | +0.10 | 64% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC NW STXCL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWDW | -0.53 | +0.05 | 89% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at SG1 STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWLW | +0.06 | -0.11 | 46% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | +0.82 | -0.39 | 28% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | MAFC STXCL Red | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWLW | -0.20 | +0.12 | 1% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SG1 STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.62 | +0.36 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | -0.48 | +0.32 | 1% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SAFC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | DWWWL | +0.25 | -0.13 | 3% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SG1 STXCL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | +0.33 | -0.08 | 1% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lions FC STXCL Red | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLL | +0.21 | -0.07 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LTFC STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.29 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | RISE SC STXCL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLL | -0.18 | +0.28 | 0% | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | JSAFC STXCL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 | 0.40 | LLLDD | -0.01 | +0.06 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.37 | -0.04 | 0% | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Imperial SC STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +0.20 | 0% | 17.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.