Imperial SC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU16 · 17 teams · Imperial Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.6 for, 3.3 against · 0.18 expected points)
| Season so far | Imperial SC STXCL | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L W D W W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold |
| Worst loss | 0–10 at AHFC NW STXCL | 0–2 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.05 | +0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | +0.82 |
Common opponents: Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold — we 0–4; they 3–0. LTFC STXCL — we 1–5; they 2–1. FC Westlake STXCL — we 0–8; they 2–1. AHFC NW STXCL — we 0–10; they 0–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold, 0–8 vs FC Westlake STXCL, 0–1 at RISE SC STXCL, 0–10 at AHFC NW STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Houstonians FC STXCL sit 16th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Imperial SC STXCL – CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
15th▲ up 2 | 16th▲ up 1 | 17th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th <1%
- 16th 4%
- 17th 96%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.33) | 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 2.50 (+2.50) | 3rd (2.18) | 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Westlake STXCL | 2.40 (+2.40) | 4th (2.10) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | AHFC NW STXCL | 2.20 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.28) | 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 2.17 (+2.17) | 5th (2.01) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.91) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | MAFC STXCL Red | 1.80 (+1.80) | 8th (1.37) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 1.80 (+1.80) | 11th (1.18) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 9 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 1.67 (+1.67) | 9th (1.36) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | SAFC STXCL | 1.67 (+1.67) | 7th (1.60) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 11 | SG1 STXCL | 1.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.30) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 12 | Lions FC STXCL Red | 0.67 (+0.67) | 13th (0.97) | 11 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 13 | LTFC STXCL | 0.60 (+0.60) | 12th (1.12) | 10 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 14 | RISE SC STXCL | 0.57 (+0.57) | 16th (0.68) | 10 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 15 | JSAFC STXCL | 0.40 (+0.40) | 14th (0.86) | A point next game |
| 16 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 0.20 (+0.20) | 15th (0.69) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Imperial SC STXCL to CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 4th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.02 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 16th · 0-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
TC Premier SC STXCL 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
NEMP |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.06 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
Lions FC STXCL Red 12th · 1-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.32 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
SAFC STXCL 10th · 3-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
JSAFC STXCL 15th · 0-2-3 · GD -4 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.46 | 0.14 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
MAFC STXCL Red 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.34 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 08:00 AM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 08:00 AM |
SG1 STXCL 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.22 | 0.15 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.41 | +0.06 | 90% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at SG1 STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.01 | -0.11 | 77% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Westlake STXCL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.41 | +0.10 | 65% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC NW STXCL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWDW | -0.53 | +0.05 | 90% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at SG1 STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWLW | +0.06 | -0.11 | 47% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | +0.82 | -0.39 | 28% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | MAFC STXCL Red | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWLW | -0.20 | +0.12 | 0% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SG1 STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.62 | +0.36 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | -0.48 | +0.32 | 0% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SAFC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | DWWWL | +0.25 | -0.13 | 3% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SG1 STXCL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | +0.33 | -0.08 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lions FC STXCL Red | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLL | +0.21 | -0.07 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LTFC STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.29 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | RISE SC STXCL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLL | -0.18 | +0.28 | 0% | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | JSAFC STXCL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 | 0.40 | LLLDD | -0.01 | +0.06 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.37 | -0.04 | 0% | 14.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Imperial SC STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +0.20 | 0% | 17.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.