AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU16 · 17 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+10 goal diff · 18–8

LWWWWlast 5

77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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AHFC CENTRAL STXCL
2nd · 2.50 PPG

MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL
1st · 3.00 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 4 ↗

30% 19% 51%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.5 against · 1.10 expected points)

Season so far	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	5-0-0
Points per game	2.50	3.00
Goals for / game	3.0	3.6
Goals against / game	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W L	W W W W W
Biggest win	5–0 vs RISE SC STXCL	7–0 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A
Worst loss	2–3 at FC Westlake STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.18	+1.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.01	-0.41

Game plan

Respect their attack
MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL score 3.6/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC CENTRAL STXCL – MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.14 PPG	5th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 4
Win 2.57 PPG	1st▲ up 1	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2
Loss 2.14 PPG	5th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

15% finish 1st

77% top 4

23% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st 15%
2nd 20%
3rd 23%
4th 19%
5th 14%
6th 7%
7th 2%
8th 1%
9th <1%
10th <1%
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.33)	33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC CENTRAL STXCL to MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

4 favour them

+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 14th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13	Away Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	2.30	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	MAFC STXCL Red 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -2	Away Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.09	2.27	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 16th · 0-1-4 · GD -9	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–1	2.65	2.32	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM	SAFC STXCL 10th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.76	2.26	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	JSAFC STXCL 15th · 0-2-3 · GD -4	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.17	2.25	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 9th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Home Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.22	2.25	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A 8th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.48	2.27	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM	TC Premier SC STXCL 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +9	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	2.20	Upside
Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM	AHFC NW STXCL 4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.04	2.13	Upside
Sat Apr 24 08:00 AM	Imperial SC STXCL 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -29	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	6–0	2.96	2.18	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL

+13

3.00

WWWWW

-0.41

+0.06

90%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	5–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at SG1 STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

+10

2.50

LWWWW

-0.01

-0.11

77%

3.3

W	Mon Oct 19	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

+11

2.40

WWWLW

-0.41

+0.10

65%

3.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–1	85%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC NW STXCL

+16

2.20

WDWDW

-0.53

+0.05

90%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	10–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at SG1 STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

2.17

WDWLW

+0.06

-0.11

47%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

2.00

WWDWL

+0.82

-0.39

27%

5.4

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs MAFC STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–0	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC STXCL Red

-2

1.80

WLWLW

-0.20

+0.12

9.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SG1 STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A

-3

1.80

WWLLW

-0.62

+0.36

11.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	3–1

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

1.67

LLWWD

-0.48

+0.32

9.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	3–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

1.67

DWWWL

+0.25

-0.13

7.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–0	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

-1

1.00

DWLL

+0.33

-0.08

9.8

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	4–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC STXCL Red

-4

0.67

WLLLL

+0.21

-0.07

12.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

-3

0.60

LLWLL

+0.29

-0.09

11.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

-9

0.57

LLWLL

-0.18

+0.28

14.9

L	Mon Oct 19	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSAFC STXCL

-4

0.40

LLLDD

-0.01

+0.06

13.4

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 STXCL (11th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lions FC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SAFC STXCL (10th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-9

0.20

LLLDL

+0.37

-0.04

14.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Imperial SC STXCL (17th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.25

+0.20

17.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC NW STXCL (4th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC STXCL (14th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC STXCL (13th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (6th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (5th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lions FC STXCL Red (12th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SAFC STXCL (10th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	JSAFC STXCL (15th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (7th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SG1 STXCL (11th)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.