San Diego Surf Blue
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU16 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.2 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf Blue | Legends FC Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 2-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W | W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 6–1 vs San Diego Surf White |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at LAFC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.98 | +0.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.11 | -0.21 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Legends FC Gold score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Sporting California USA RED sit 3rd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.A point moves us above Sporting California USA RED on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Blue – Legends FC Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 36%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.56) | 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 2 | Legends FC Gold | 2.33 (+0.08) | 3rd (2.00) | A point next game |
| 3 | Sporting California USA RED | 2.33 (+0.08) | 4th (1.85) | A point next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Blue to Legends FC Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 15th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 01:00 PM no score posted |
Eagles SC 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Legends FC Gold 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Sporting California USA NAVY 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Sporting California USA RED 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Rebels SC 6th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Pateadores Blue 13th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
CDA Slammers FC White 18th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.81 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
SDSC Surf Blue 10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
SDSC Surf Gold 8th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
3–2 | 1.87 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM |
Pateadores Gold 11th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.36 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
San Diego Surf White 14th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 2.05 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
West Coast FC Navy 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.03 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.12 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Legends FC Gold | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.21 | -0.04 | 80% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.39 | +0.04 | 62% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.11 | -0.10 | 83% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | WLDW | -0.65 | +0.18 | 12% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rebels SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | DWWL | +0.51 | -0.14 | 11% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | -0.29 | +0.08 | 7% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | +0.41 | -0.14 | 17% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | 1.40 | LDWWL | +0.21 | -0.05 | 1% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | WDLD | +0.30 | -0.11 | 8% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pateadores Gold | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -0.06 | +0.06 | 0% | 13.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLWL | -0.30 | +0.21 | 1% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Pateadores Blue | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | -0.08 | +0.03 | 3% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Eagles SC · Sat Oct 24 at LAFC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | San Diego Surf White | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.18 | +0.01 | 1% | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.26 | -0.10 | 5% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Legends FC Black | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | +0.07 | +0.04 | 0% | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Eagles SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Sep 20 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Sep 27 vs San Diego Surf Blue · Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.47 | -0.02 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.