Pateadores Blue

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Alemany High School , Softball 11v11 Grass ↗ · grass far trip

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.9 against · 0.43 expected points)

• Respect their attack
  LAFC score 3.8/game — well above the league's 1.7.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting California USA RED, 0–2 vs LV Heat Surf.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 10%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  LAFC have won 6 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Softball 11v11 Grass" at Alemany High School .

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Alemany High School .

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  LV Heat Surf sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

  A point moves us above LV Heat Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores Blue – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 1%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th 5%
7. 7th 7%
8. 8th 8%
9. 9th 8%
10. 10th 9%
11. 11th 10%
12. 12th 10%
13. 13th 10%
14. 14th 9%
15. 15th 9%
16. 16th 8%
17. 17th 4%
18. 18th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).