TableChase Clubs

West Coast FC Navy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU16 · 18 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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7th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+1 goal diff · 9–8
WWLLlast 4
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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West Coast FC Navy
7th · 1.50 PPG
at
Legends FC Black
16th · 0.25 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 20 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.88 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FC NavyLegends FC Black
Position7th16th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-20-1-3
Points per game1.500.25
Goals for / game2.30.8
Goals against / game2.02.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L L W WD L L L
Biggest win4–2 vs SDSC Surf Gold—
Worst loss2–3 vs Legends FC Gold1–4 at San Diego Surf Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.02-0.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29+0.07

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Legends FC Black average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 1 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 20% / loss 24%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Silverlakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC sit 6th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC Navy – Legends FC Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.40 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 14th▼ down 7
Loss
1.20 PPG		 10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 8

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
9.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 4%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.56) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2 Legends FC Gold 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (2.00) 34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 Sporting California USA RED 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.85) 34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (2.03) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.75 (+0.25) 6th (1.47) A point next game
6 Rebels SC 1.75 (+0.25) 7th (1.47) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC Navy to Legends FC Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 1–1 1–1 2–3 1–5 4–1 0–2 West Coast FC Navy 7th Legends FC Gold 2nd CDA Slammers FC Mar… 9th SDSC Surf Blue 10th San Diego Surf Blue 4th Legends FC Black 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 3rd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Legends FC Black
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.88 1.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.41 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 LAFC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +16		 Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 LV Heat Surf
12th · 2-1-4 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–2 1.30 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 22
06:00 PM		 Eagles SC
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
Saddleback College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–1 1.55 1.40 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Pateadores Blue
13th · 1-1-2 · GD -1		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.38 1.39 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.88 1.35 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Gold
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.63 1.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Sporting California USA NAVY
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -1		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–1 1.56 1.39 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM		 San Diego Surf White
14th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.65 1.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:45 AM		 Rebels SC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.33 1.40 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.48 1.40 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 0.99 1.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 6600 237+16 183.00 WWWWW -0.12 -0.10 100% 1.2
2 Legends FC Gold 3210 104+6 72.33 DWW -0.21 -0.04 81% 3.4
3 Sporting California USA RED 3210 51+4 72.33 WDW -0.39 +0.04 62% 4.5
4 San Diego Surf Blue 4301 136+7 92.25 WWLW +0.11 -0.10 84% 3.2
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 53+2 71.75 WLDW -0.65 +0.18 12% 8.4
6 Rebels SC 4211 45-1 71.75 DWWL +0.51 -0.14 11% 8.6
7 West Coast FC Navy 4202 98+1 61.50 WWLL -0.29 +0.08 6% 9.6
8 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 1213-1 61.50 LLWW +0.41 -0.14 18% 7.6
9 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5212 711-4 71.40 LDWWL +0.21 -0.05 2% 11.8
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4121 44+0 51.25 WDLD +0.30 -0.11 7% 9.2
11 Pateadores Gold 5203 59-4 61.20 LWLLW -0.06 +0.06 0% 13.0
12 LV Heat Surf 7214 1313+0 71.00 LWLWL -0.30 +0.21 0% 12.1
13 Pateadores Blue 4112 45-1 41.00 LWDL -0.08 +0.03 2% 11.3
14 San Diego Surf White 3102 48-4 31.00 WLL +0.18 +0.01 1% 13.4
15 Sporting California USA NAVY 4103 78-1 30.75 LLLW +0.26 -0.10 4% 10.3
16 Legends FC Black 4013 310-7 10.25 LLLD +0.07 +0.04 0% 16.3
17 Eagles SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
18 CDA Slammers FC White 4004 013-13 00.00 LLLL +0.47 -0.02 0% 17.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.