South Carolina Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU15 · 11 teams · South Carolina Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.2 against · 1.97 expected points)
| Season so far | South Carolina Surf | CESA Triumph Surge |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D W D W L | L L L W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs South Carolina United | 2–0 vs Charlotte SA Gold |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL | 2–6 at CESA Triumph Summit |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.49 | -0.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: GSA — we 1–1; they 2–3, 0–1. United Futbol Academy — we 2–3; they 1–4, 1–2. NTH NASA ENCL RL — we 0–2; they 1–2. South Carolina United — we 4–0, 2–2; they 2–1. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–0; they 0–3. Concorde Fire Premier — we 2–2; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 20% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
CESA Triumph Surge have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Mesa Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Concorde Fire Platinum sit 4th on 1.56 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Concorde Fire Platinum on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CESA Triumph Surge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Carolina Surf – CESA Triumph Surge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 37%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CESA Triumph Summit | 2.73 (+1.23) | 1st (2.56) | 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | NTH NASA ENCL RL | 2.50 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.16) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 3 | GSA | 2.20 (+0.70) | 3rd (2.06) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.56 (+0.06) | 6th (1.50) | A point next game |
How the results connect
70 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link South Carolina Surf to CESA Triumph Surge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 5th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Surge 9th · 2-1-7 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Summit 1st · 10-0-1 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
GSA 3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Pinewood Prep |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 5-0-5 · GD +4 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 7th · 3-2-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.55 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-2-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM |
NTH NASA ENCL RL 2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Franklin Gateway Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 3-0-7 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Scott Hudgens Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 11th · 1-0-8 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.45 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 9 03:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Surge 9th · 2-1-7 · GD -11 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 10 02:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Summit 1st · 10-0-1 · GD +25 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 11th · 1-0-8 · GD -21 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
2–0 | 2.61 | 1.60 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CESA Triumph Summit | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 13 | +25 | 30 | 2.73 | WWWLW | -0.11 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NTH NASA ENCL RL | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 25 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.07 | -0.09 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 22 | 2.20 | WWDWW | +0.00 | -0.16 | 97% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 | 1.56 | LWDWL | -0.11 | +0.07 | 22% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 | 1.50 | LWDWD | -0.12 | -0.02 | 46% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Nov 7 vs GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 15 | 1.50 | WWWWL | +0.04 | -0.12 | 30% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 11 | 1.22 | WLLLD | -0.10 | +0.07 | 6% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 9 | 0.90 | WLLLL | +0.22 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CESA Triumph Surge | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 | 0.70 | WWLLL | +0.21 | -0.08 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Carolina United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 5 | 0.50 | LLLDW | +0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Charlotte SA Gold | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLWL | +0.10 | +0.19 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.