Concorde Fire Platinum

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Georgia Sports Park , field 5 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.46 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 3–0 at Charlotte SA Gold (W)

Common opponents: CESA Triumph Summit — we 1–3; they 0–6. CESA Triumph Surge — we 3–0; they 0–2. South Carolina United — we 1–1; they 0–5. Concorde Fire Premier — we 1–4, 3–2; they 1–2. Atlanta Fire United — we 3–1; they 3–0. NTH NASA ENCL RL — we 0–0; they 0–1.

• They struggle to score
  Charlotte SA Gold average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 6 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Charlotte SA Gold concede 2.9/game; worst result 0–6 at CESA Triumph Summit.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at NTH NASA ENCL RL, 0–2 at South Carolina Surf.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

Where we'd sit after the Charlotte SA Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Platinum – Charlotte SA Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 3%
4. 4th 18%
5. 5th 26%
6. 6th 29%
7. 7th 20%
8. 8th 2%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th
11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.35 PPG if we win out).