Concorde Fire Premier
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU15 · 11 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 6 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.6 against · 2.19 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Premier | South Carolina United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Points per game | 1.22 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L L W | W D L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at South Carolina United | 5–0 vs Charlotte SA Gold |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs CESA Triumph Summit | 0–4 at GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.07 | -0.99 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.10 | +0.04 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 3–0 at South Carolina United (W)
Common opponents: CESA Triumph Surge — we 2–2; they 1–2. CESA Triumph Summit — we 1–4; they 2–4. Charlotte SA Gold — we 2–1; they 5–0. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 4–1, 2–3; they 1–1. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–3; they 2–4. South Carolina Surf — we 2–2; they 0–4, 2–2.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina United concede 2.8/game; worst result 0–4 at GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – South Carolina United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.40 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.20 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.10 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 6%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 26%
- 7th 44%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 2%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CESA Triumph Summit | 2.73 (+1.51) | 1st (2.56) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | NTH NASA ENCL RL | 2.50 (+1.28) | 2nd (2.16) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | GSA | 2.20 (+0.98) | 3rd (2.06) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.56 (+0.34) | 6th (1.50) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | South Carolina Surf | 1.50 (+0.28) | 4th (1.60) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 1.50 (+0.28) | 5th (1.55) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
63 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to South Carolina United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.07 · 4th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
South Carolina United 10th · 1-2-7 · GD -14 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 11th · 1-0-8 · GD -21 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.54 | 1.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 3-0-7 · GD -12 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
NTH NASA ENCL RL 2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.04 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 5th · 3-3-2 · GD +6 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 5-0-5 · GD +4 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
GSA 3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Summit 1st · 10-0-1 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Surge 9th · 2-1-7 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 11:00 AM |
GSA 3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
GSA East |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 5-0-5 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CESA Triumph Summit | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 13 | +25 | 30 | 2.73 | WWWLW | -0.11 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NTH NASA ENCL RL | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 25 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.07 | -0.09 | 99% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 22 | 2.20 | WWDWW | +0.00 | -0.16 | 97% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 | 1.56 | LWDWL | -0.11 | +0.07 | 22% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 | 1.50 | LWDWD | -0.12 | -0.02 | 43% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Nov 7 vs GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 15 | 1.50 | WWWWL | +0.04 | -0.12 | 32% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA ENCL RL · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 11 | 1.22 | WLLLD | -0.10 | +0.07 | 7% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 9 | 0.90 | WLLLL | +0.22 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CESA Triumph Surge | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 | 0.70 | WWLLL | +0.21 | -0.08 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Carolina United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 5 | 0.50 | LLLDW | +0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Charlotte SA Gold | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLWL | +0.10 | +0.19 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.