SOLAR WHITE NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU15 · 24 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM
Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.7 against · 0.79 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR WHITE NTX | FC Dallas Youth NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 23rd | 19th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-7 | 3-0-6 |
| Points per game | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L L | L W L W L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Dallas Texans NTX | 5–1 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs East Dallas FC NTX | 0–4 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.96 | -0.18 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.30 | +0.01 |
Common opponents: DKSC NTX — we 0–1; they 0–1. Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 2–3; they 4–0. East Dallas FC NTX — we 1–5; they 1–3. Dallas Texans NTX — we 1–0; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX, 0–1 at DKSC NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Dallas Youth White NTX sit 22nd on 0.44 PPG; we are on 0.44.A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth White NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR WHITE NTX – FC Dallas Youth NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.40 PPG |
24th▼ down 1 | 24th▼ down 1 | 24th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.70 PPG |
20th▲ up 3 | 20th▲ up 3 | 21st▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
22nd▲ up 1 | 22nd▲ up 1 | 23rd— holds |
| Loss 0.40 PPG |
24th▼ down 1 | 24th▼ down 1 | 24th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 23rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 24th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 3%
- 18th 4%
- 19th 7%
- 20th 13%
- 21st 17%
- 22nd 18%
- 23rd 18%
- 24th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.47 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fever United FC NTX | 2.78 (+2.34) | 1st (2.56) | 38 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.75 (+2.31) | 2nd (2.55) | 38 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 2.63 (+2.19) | 4th (2.06) | 36 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | NTX United FC - NTX | 2.25 (+1.81) | 5th (1.99) | 30 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.13 (+1.69) | 3rd (2.07) | 28 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | DKSC NTX | 2.00 (+1.56) | 6th (1.96) | 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1.89 (+1.45) | 7th (1.94) | 25 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.63 (+1.19) | 9th (1.56) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1.44 (+1.00) | 8th (1.58) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Sting NTX | 1.43 (+0.99) | 11th (1.42) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 11 | East Dallas FC NTX | 1.38 (+0.94) | 12th (1.42) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 12 | Dutch FC NTX | 1.38 (+0.94) | 10th (1.44) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 13 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 1.25 (+0.81) | 19th (1.00) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 14 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 1.22 (+0.78) | 13th (1.28) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 15 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX | 1.22 (+0.78) | 16th (1.19) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 16 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 1.13 (+0.69) | 17th (1.16) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 17 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 1.11 (+0.67) | 18th (1.03) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 18 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.11 (+0.67) | 14th (1.23) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 19 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 1.00 (+0.56) | 15th (1.19) | 11 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 20 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 0.67 (+0.23) | 20th (0.84) | A point next game |
| 21 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 0.67 (+0.23) | 22nd (0.64) | A point next game |
| 22 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 0.44 (+0.00) | 24th (0.61) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
30 chains · 15 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR WHITE NTX to FC Dallas Youth NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 22nd hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:20 PM |
FC Dallas Youth NTX 19th · 3-0-6 · GD -2 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.48 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:40 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9th · 4-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:20 PM |
Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 15th · 3-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:40 AM |
Dutch FC NTX 12th · 3-2-3 · GD -1 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 08:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth White NTX 22nd · 0-4-5 · GD -10 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:50 AM |
NTX Celtic FC NTX 14th · 3-2-4 · GD -5 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 0.69 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Fever United FC NTX | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 12 | +22 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.27 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Nido Dallas White NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWD | -0.27 | +0.40 | 99% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at NTX United FC - NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.38 | +0.56 | 43% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NTX United FC - NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NTX United FC - NTX | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWLL | +0.04 | +0.02 | 37% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 9 | +17 | 17 | 2.13 | DWWWW | -0.11 | +0.20 | 59% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Fever United FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | DKSC NTX | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 | 2.00 | WWLLW | -0.17 | -0.24 | 32% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Dallas FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Dutch FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 17 | 1.89 | WDLLW | -0.21 | -0.30 | 29% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | DDLWW | -0.32 | +0.36 | 1% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 13 | 1.44 | LWWWW | +0.33 | -0.50 | 1% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at East Dallas FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sting NTX | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 | 1.43 | WDLLW | +0.42 | -0.07 | 1% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | East Dallas FC NTX | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 | 1.38 | DDWWL | -0.46 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Dutch FC NTX | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 11 | 1.38 | WWDLL | -0.05 | -0.30 | 0% | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWDW | -0.30 | +0.08 | 0% | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 11 | 1.22 | DLDWW | +0.04 | -0.08 | 0% | 13.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 | 1.22 | WLDWL | +0.28 | -0.30 | 0% | 15.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 | 1.13 | LLLLW | +0.34 | -0.16 | 0% | 15.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 10 | 1.11 | LWLWL | -0.36 | +0.85 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX United FC - NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Dallas Texans NTX | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | 1.11 | DWWLL | -0.14 | -0.12 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 at East Dallas FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 9 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.01 | -0.33 | 0% | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dutch FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLLD | +0.15 | +0.20 | 0% | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Mon Jan 1 vs Dutch FC NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs Sting NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 40 | -30 | 6 | 0.67 | LLLLL | +0.50 | +0.00 | 0% | 22.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas White NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 | 0.44 | DLDDL | -0.19 | -0.00 | 0% | 22.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 4 | 0.44 | LLLLW | +0.30 | -0.31 | 0% | 21.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | SOLAR RED NTX | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | 0.44 | LLDLL | +0.60 | -0.26 | 0% | 22.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.