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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU15 · 24 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+20 goal diff · 22–2
WWWWDlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7
-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
2nd · 2.75 PPG
vs
Nido Dallas White NTX
20th · 0.67 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 15 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.5 against · 2.65 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Red NTXNido Dallas White NTX
Position2nd20th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-01-1-4
Points per game2.750.67
Goals for / game2.81.0
Goals against / game0.32.0
Clean sheets62
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)D W W W WD L L L L
Biggest win8–1 at Dallas Texans Red NTX2–0 at East Dallas FC NTX
Worst loss—2–6 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.72-0.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.27+0.15

Common opponents: SOLAR RED NTX — we 3–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas White NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Red NTX – Nido Dallas White NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.44 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

46% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.7 average finish
  1. 1st 46%
  2. 2nd 44%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Fever United FC NTX 2.78 (+0.03) 1st (2.56) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Red NTX to Nido Dallas White NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–0 4–0 1–3 0–2 1–3 1–4 3–2 1–3 1–0 1–1 4–1 8–1 1–7 2–0 6–3 1–0 2–1 1–0 2–1 2–0 0–0 1–2 FC Dallas Youth Red… 2nd SOLAR RED NTX 24th FC Dallas Youth NTX 19th Fever United FC NTX 1st Dallas Texans Red N… 21st FC Dallas Youth Nav… 16th Dallas Texans NTX 18th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 22nd East Dallas FC NTX 11th NTX United FC - NTX 4th Atlético Dallas You… 7th Kernow Storm FC NTX 17th Nido Dallas White N… 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 22 Sep 6 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 3rd hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
NTX United FC - NTX
4th · 6-0-2 · GD +10
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.11 2.68 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
Nido Dallas White NTX
20th · 1-1-4 · GD -6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
2–0 2.65 2.68 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
5th · 5-2-1 · GD +17
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.92 2.61 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
3rd · 7-0-1 · GD +12
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.32 2.58 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
05:10 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
17th · 3-1-5 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 2.58 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
01:30 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
8th · 3-4-1 · GD +6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 2.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
01:30 PM
Sting NTX
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.35 2.55 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Fever United FC NTX 9810 3412+22 252.78 WWWWD -0.25 +0.27 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8710 222+20 222.75 WWWWD -0.27 +0.40 99% 1.7
3 DKSC WHITE NTX 8701 2614+12 212.63 WWWWW -0.38 +0.56 46% 4.9
4 NTX United FC - NTX 8602 2515+10 182.25 WWWLL +0.04 +0.02 36% 5.4
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 8521 269+17 172.13 DWWWW -0.11 +0.20 58% 4.4
6 DKSC NTX 9603 198+11 182.00 WWLLW -0.17 -0.24 32% 5.6
7 Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9522 209+11 171.89 WDLLW -0.21 -0.30 29% 5.7
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 8341 2216+6 131.63 DDLWW -0.32 +0.36 1% 9.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9414 1717+0 131.44 LWWWW +0.33 -0.50 0% 9.7
10 Sting NTX 7313 1214-2 101.43 WDLLW +0.42 -0.07 0% 11.9
11 East Dallas FC NTX 8323 1412+2 111.38 DDWWL -0.46 +0.11 0% 11.6
12 Dutch FC NTX 8323 1718-1 111.38 WWDLL -0.05 -0.30 0% 11.6
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8314 719-12 101.25 LLWDW -0.30 +0.08 0% 18.1
14 NTX Celtic FC NTX 9324 1722-5 111.22 DLDWW +0.04 -0.08 0% 13.9
15 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 9324 1119-8 111.22 WLDWL +0.28 -0.30 0% 15.4
16 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 8305 814-6 91.13 LLLLW +0.34 -0.16 0% 15.6
17 Kernow Storm FC NTX 9315 1616+0 101.11 LWLWL -0.36 +0.85 0% 17.2
18 Dallas Texans NTX 9315 1011-1 101.11 DWWLL -0.14 -0.12 0% 14.2
19 FC Dallas Youth NTX 9306 1820-2 91.00 LWLWL +0.01 -0.33 0% 14.6
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6114 612-6 40.67 LLLLD +0.15 +0.20 0% 19.6
21 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9207 1040-30 60.67 LLLLL +0.50 +0.00 0% 22.3
22 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 9045 414-10 40.44 DLDDL -0.19 -0.00 0% 22.1
23 SOLAR WHITE NTX 9117 1124-13 40.44 LLLLW +0.30 -0.31 0% 21.3
24 SOLAR RED NTX 9117 924-15 40.44 LLDLL +0.60 -0.26 0% 22.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.