TableChase Clubs

NTX United FC - NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU15 · 24 teams · NTX United FC (all teams)

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4th
6-0-2 record · 8 played
2.25 points per game
+10 goal diff · 25–15
WWWLLlast 5
37% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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NTX United FC - NTX
4th · 2.25 PPG
vs
DKSC WHITE NTX
3rd · 2.63 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.7 against · 1.56 expected points)

Season so farNTX United FC - NTXDKSC WHITE NTX
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)6-0-27-0-1
Points per game2.252.63
Goals for / game3.13.3
Goals against / game1.91.8
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L W W WW W W W W
Biggest win4–0 at Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX5–1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX
Worst loss3–6 vs Fever United FC NTX0–4 at DKSC NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.81+0.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.04-0.38

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    DKSC WHITE NTX score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 17% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    DKSC WHITE NTX have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC WHITE NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX United FC - NTX – DKSC WHITE NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.11 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.33 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.11 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
37% top 4
63% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Fever United FC NTX 2.78 (+0.53) 1st (2.56) 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.75 (+0.50) 2nd (2.55) 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.63 (+0.38) 4th (2.06) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link NTX United FC - NTX to DKSC WHITE NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
7 even
6 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 4–1 1–3 3–2 1–1 3–4 2–0 0–3 3–2 3–5 4–2 2–3 2–1 4–1 0–1 3–6 5–0 2–5 2–4 0–1 2–2 0–1 3–1 NTX United FC - NTX 4th Atletico Dallas You… 5th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 9th NTX Celtic FC NTX 14th SOLAR WHITE NTX 23rd Fever United FC NTX 1st FC Dallas Youth Nav… 16th SOLAR BLUE NTX 8th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 22nd FC Dallas Youth NTX 19th Dallas Texans Red N… 21st Dallas Texans NTX 18th DKSC WHITE NTX 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 22 Sep 6 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 10th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.71 2.08 Upside
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
3rd · 7-0-1 · GD +12
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.56 2.03 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
05:10 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
17th · 3-1-5 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 2.00 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
8th · 3-4-1 · GD +6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.43 1.95 Upside
Sat Apr 3
07:00 PM
Sting NTX
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.75 1.94 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
21st · 2-0-7 · GD -30
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.72 1.99 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
16th · 3-0-5 · GD -6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 1.99 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Fever United FC NTX 9810 3412+22 252.78 WWWWD -0.25 +0.27 99% 1.7
2 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8710 222+20 222.75 WWWWD -0.27 +0.40 99% 1.7
3 DKSC WHITE NTX 8701 2614+12 212.63 WWWWW -0.38 +0.56 45% 4.9
4 NTX United FC - NTX 8602 2515+10 182.25 WWWLL +0.04 +0.02 37% 5.3
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 8521 269+17 172.13 DWWWW -0.11 +0.20 58% 4.4
6 DKSC NTX 9603 198+11 182.00 WWLLW -0.17 -0.24 31% 5.6
7 Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9522 209+11 171.89 WDLLW -0.21 -0.30 28% 5.7
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 8341 2216+6 131.63 DDLWW -0.32 +0.36 1% 9.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9414 1717+0 131.44 LWWWW +0.33 -0.50 1% 9.7
10 Sting NTX 7313 1214-2 101.43 WDLLW +0.42 -0.07 1% 11.8
11 East Dallas FC NTX 8323 1412+2 111.38 DDWWL -0.46 +0.11 0% 11.6
12 Dutch FC NTX 8323 1718-1 111.38 WWDLL -0.05 -0.30 0% 11.6
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8314 719-12 101.25 LLWDW -0.30 +0.08 0% 18.1
14 NTX Celtic FC NTX 9324 1722-5 111.22 DLDWW +0.04 -0.08 0% 13.9
15 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 9324 1119-8 111.22 WLDWL +0.28 -0.30 0% 15.4
16 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 8305 814-6 91.13 LLLLW +0.34 -0.16 0% 15.6
17 Kernow Storm FC NTX 9315 1616+0 101.11 LWLWL -0.36 +0.85 0% 17.2
18 Dallas Texans NTX 9315 1011-1 101.11 DWWLL -0.14 -0.12 0% 14.1
19 FC Dallas Youth NTX 9306 1820-2 91.00 LWLWL +0.01 -0.33 0% 14.7
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6114 612-6 40.67 LLLLD +0.15 +0.20 0% 19.7
21 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9207 1040-30 60.67 LLLLL +0.50 +0.00 0% 22.2
22 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 9045 414-10 40.44 DLDDL -0.19 -0.00 0% 22.1
23 SOLAR WHITE NTX 9117 1124-13 40.44 LLLLW +0.30 -0.31 0% 21.3
24 SOLAR RED NTX 9117 924-15 40.44 LLDLL +0.60 -0.26 0% 22.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.