TableChase Clubs

World Class FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · World Class FC (all teams)

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1st
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+19 goal diff · 21–2
WWWlast 3
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-2.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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World Class FC
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 0.80 PPG

Orangetown Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 4.0 for, 1.1 against · 2.68 expected points)

Season so farWorld Class FCBaltimore Celtic
Position1st11th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-1-3
Points per game3.000.80
Goals for / game7.01.0
Goals against / game0.72.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W WL L L D W
Biggest win15–0 vs Match Fit Surf1–0 at PSA Monmouth
Worst loss—0–4 vs FC DELCO
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.44-0.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.22+0.43

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Baltimore Celtic average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Baltimore Celtic have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Baltimore Celtic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (World Class FC – Baltimore Celtic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

32% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 32%
  2. 2nd 39%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link World Class FC to Baltimore Celtic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–0 0–1 3–1 2–5 4–0 15–0 0–16 0–6 1–0 World Class FC 1st PDA 10th STA 7th Match Fit Surf 14th PSA Monmouth 13th FC DELCO 2nd Delaware FC 6th Baltimore Celtic 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 6th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
04:00 PM
no score posted
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.27 2.82 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–1 2.68 2.79 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
03:15 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.53 2.75 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.56 2.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
06:00 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 2.60 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
11:30 AM
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.64 2.61 Bank it
Sat Nov 28
TBD
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 2.56 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
10:00 AM
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.34 2.45 Upside
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Away far trip
Maryland Soccerplex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.19 2.43 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
01:30 PM
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.38 2.35 Upside
Sat Dec 19
12:45 PM
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Away far trip
Proving Grounds
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.05 2.26 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–1 2.66 2.28 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 2.33 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 2.34 Bank it
Sat Mar 27
TBD
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.13 2.33 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.35 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
5–1 2.74 2.37 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.47 2.32 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.78 2.35 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
4–1 2.46 2.35 Bank it
Sat May 22
02:30 PM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.02 2.34 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.93 2.32 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
TBD
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.69 2.30 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 World Class FC 3300 212+19 93.00 WWW -2.22 +0.17 98% 2.1
2 FC DELCO 7610 376+31 192.71 WWWWD -0.74 +0.13 100% 1.6
3 Pipeline SC 4301 233+20 92.25 WWWL -2.04 +0.28 88% 3.2
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 122+10 92.25 WWLW +0.41 -0.13 76% 3.8
5 Maryland United FC 8422 129+3 141.75 WDLWW +0.78 -0.27 7% 6.2
6 Delaware FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DLWWL -0.81 +0.26 2% 7.2
7 STA 6303 2612+14 91.50 WLWWL -0.08 +0.01 28% 5.1
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6222 2315+8 81.33 LLDWD -0.60 +0.26 1% 7.5
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5131 1014-4 61.20 DDDLW +0.41 +0.03 0% 9.9
10 PDA 3102 26-4 31.00 LLW +0.88 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Baltimore Celtic 5113 510-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.43 +0.04 0% 10.8
12 SJEB FC 5104 1316-3 30.60 LLLLW -0.75 +0.28 0% 11.0
13 PSA Monmouth 5023 513-8 20.40 LLDDL +0.22 +0.12 0% 12.3
14 Match Fit Surf 7007 086-86 00.00 LLLLL +1.25 +0.43 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.