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PDA

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · Players Development Academy (all teams)

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10th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 2–6
LLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.3
+0.88 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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PDA
10th · 1.00 PPG
at
Pipeline SC
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Notre Dame Prepatory School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.6 against · 0.30 expected points)

Season so farPDAPipeline SC
Position10th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-23-0-1
Points per game1.002.25
Goals for / game0.75.8
Goals against / game2.00.8
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L LL W W W
Biggest win1–0 vs PSA Monmouth12–0 at Match Fit Surf
Worst loss0–3 at STA0–2 vs Maryland United FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.52+2.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.88-2.04

Common opponents: PSA Monmouth — we 1–0; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Pipeline SC score 5.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Pipeline SC concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at STA.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Notre Dame Prepatory School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals sit 9th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PDA – Pipeline SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
11th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
11th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 21%
  11. 11th 21%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 World Class FC 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.30) 75 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection
2 FC DELCO 2.71 (+1.71) 1st (2.42) 68 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection
3 Pipeline SC 2.25 (+1.25) 3rd (2.10) 56 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2.25 (+1.25) 4th (2.02) 56 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
5 Maryland United FC 1.75 (+0.75) 6th (1.64) 43 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 Delaware FC 1.67 (+0.67) 7th (1.46) 41 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 STA 1.50 (+0.50) 5th (1.78) Win next game
8 Potomac Soccer Association 1.33 (+0.33) 8th (1.42) A point next game
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 1.20 (+0.20) 9th (1.10) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link PDA to Pipeline SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–7 0–3 14–0 0–12 1–3 15–0 PDA 10th PSA Monmouth 13th STA 7th World Class FC 1st Match Fit Surf 14th Pipeline SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 12th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 0.82 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Liberty Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.80 0.82 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.32 0.74 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Away far trip
Toms River East High School
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.91 1.05 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.84 1.02 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.41 1.06 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.43 1.05 Upside
Sat Dec 5
01:00 PM
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.98 1.04 Upside
Sun Dec 6
02:00 PM
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.43 1.07 Upside
Sat Dec 19
12:00 PM
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 1.03 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.25 0.98 Upside
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 1.10 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
10:00 AM
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 1.07 Upside
Sat Mar 27
TBD
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.14 1.10 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.21 1.04 Upside
Sat May 1
02:00 PM
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 1.00 1.03 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 1.04 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 1.04 Upside
Sun May 16
11:00 AM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.12 1.05 Upside
Sun May 23
12:00 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.60 1.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 World Class FC 3300 212+19 93.00 WWW -2.22 +0.17 98% 2.2
2 FC DELCO 7610 376+31 192.71 WWWWD -0.74 +0.13 99% 1.5
3 Pipeline SC 4301 233+20 92.25 WWWL -2.04 +0.28 87% 3.2
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 122+10 92.25 WWLW +0.41 -0.13 77% 3.8
5 Maryland United FC 8422 129+3 141.75 WDLWW +0.78 -0.27 8% 6.1
6 Delaware FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DLWWL -0.81 +0.26 2% 7.3
7 STA 6303 2612+14 91.50 WLWWL -0.08 +0.01 28% 5.1
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6222 2315+8 81.33 LLDWD -0.60 +0.26 1% 7.5
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5131 1014-4 61.20 DDDLW +0.41 +0.03 0% 9.9
10 PDA 3102 26-4 31.00 LLW +0.88 +0.00 0% 10.3
11 Baltimore Celtic 5113 510-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.43 +0.04 0% 10.8
12 SJEB FC 5104 1316-3 30.60 LLLLW -0.75 +0.28 0% 11.0
13 PSA Monmouth 5023 513-8 20.40 LLDDL +0.22 +0.12 0% 12.2
14 Match Fit Surf 7007 086-86 00.00 LLLLL +1.25 +0.43 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.