TableChase Clubs

Pipeline SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · Pipeline SC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+20 goal diff · 23–3
WWWLlast 4
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-2.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Pipeline SC
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
PDA
10th · 1.00 PPG

Notre Dame Prepatory School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.61 expected points)

Season so farPipeline SCPDA
Position3rd10th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-0-2
Points per game2.251.00
Goals for / game5.80.7
Goals against / game0.82.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W W WW L L
Biggest win12–0 at Match Fit Surf1–0 vs PSA Monmouth
Worst loss0–2 vs Maryland United FC0–3 at STA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.16-0.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.04+0.88

Common opponents: PSA Monmouth — we 7–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    PDA average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Maryland United FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PDA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC – PDA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 36%
  4. 4th 24%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 World Class FC 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.30) 69 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
2 FC DELCO 2.71 (+0.46) 1st (2.42) 62 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Pipeline SC to PDA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–1 0–1 12–0 0–14 3–0 0–15 3–1 Pipeline SC 3rd PSA Monmouth 13th Match Fit Surf 14th STA 7th World Class FC 1st PDA 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.28 · 2nd hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
02:30 PM
no score posted
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.69 2.14 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.61 2.22 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
02:30 PM
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Away
Downingtown East High School
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–2 0.96 2.04 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:30 AM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
4–1 2.45 2.09 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 2.10 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.62 2.15 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
10:00 AM
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.48 2.09 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.68 2.06 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
11:45 AM
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Away far trip
Maryland Soccerplex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.08 2.06 Swing game
Sat Dec 19
12:00 PM
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 2.08 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
TBD
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.02 2.08 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 2.12 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 2.14 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.13 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.28 2.08 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 2.13 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.93 2.12 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.13 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 2.16 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.38 2.12 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
4–1 2.37 2.13 Bank it
Sat Jun 5
TBD
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.14 2.10 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 World Class FC 3300 212+19 93.00 WWW -2.22 +0.17 98% 2.1
2 FC DELCO 7610 376+31 192.71 WWWWD -0.74 +0.13 100% 1.6
3 Pipeline SC 4301 233+20 92.25 WWWL -2.04 +0.28 88% 3.2
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 122+10 92.25 WWLW +0.41 -0.13 76% 3.8
5 Maryland United FC 8422 129+3 141.75 WDLWW +0.78 -0.27 7% 6.2
6 Delaware FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DLWWL -0.81 +0.26 2% 7.2
7 STA 6303 2612+14 91.50 WLWWL -0.08 +0.01 28% 5.1
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6222 2315+8 81.33 LLDWD -0.60 +0.26 1% 7.5
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5131 1014-4 61.20 DDDLW +0.41 +0.03 0% 9.9
10 PDA 3102 26-4 31.00 LLW +0.88 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Baltimore Celtic 5113 510-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.43 +0.04 0% 10.8
12 SJEB FC 5104 1316-3 30.60 LLLLW -0.75 +0.28 0% 11.0
13 PSA Monmouth 5023 513-8 20.40 LLDDL +0.22 +0.12 0% 12.3
14 Match Fit Surf 7007 086-86 00.00 LLLLL +1.25 +0.43 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.