TableChase Clubs

Maryland United FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · Maryland United Football Club (all teams)

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5th
4-2-2 record · 8 played
1.75 points per game
+3 goal diff · 12–9
WDLWWlast 5
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.1
+0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Maryland United FC
5th · 1.75 PPG
vs
PDA
10th · 1.00 PPG

Liberty Sports Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.9 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so farMaryland United FCPDA
Position5th10th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-21-0-2
Points per game1.751.00
Goals for / game1.50.7
Goals against / game1.12.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W W L D WW L L
Biggest win4–2 at Potomac Soccer Association1–0 vs PSA Monmouth
Worst loss0–2 at Delaware FC0–3 at STA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.44-0.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.78+0.88

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    PDA average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Delaware FC, 0–2 at FC DELCO.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 23% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PDA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Maryland United FC – PDA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.89 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.89 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.67 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.56 PPG
6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
6.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 35%
  7. 7th 24%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 World Class FC 3.00 (+1.25) 2nd (2.30) 64 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 FC DELCO 2.71 (+0.96) 1st (2.42) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
3 Pipeline SC 2.25 (+0.50) 3rd (2.10) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2.25 (+0.50) 4th (2.02) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Maryland United FC to PDA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–0 0–1 1–1 3–3 4–2 1–5 3–0 1–1 0–2 5–2 1–0 3–1 2–0 7–1 Maryland United FC 5th Baltimore Celtic 11th Philadelphia Ukrain… 9th Potomac Soccer Asso… 8th FC DELCO 2nd Penn Fusion Soccer … 4th Pipeline SC 3rd PSA Monmouth 13th STA 7th PDA 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 14th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Liberty Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–0 1.97 1.77 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Home
Indian Creek
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 1.72 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.92 1.74 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Away far trip
Monmouth Regional High School
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.97 1.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 28
TBD
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.64 1.75 Upside
Sat Dec 19
11:30 AM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Liberty Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.53 1.74 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.76 1.74 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.71 1.74 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.07 1.70 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.94 1.65 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.60 1.65 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.99 1.72 Bank it
Sat May 1
02:00 PM
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.74 1.72 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 1.00 1.69 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 1.69 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–0 2.14 1.71 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.87 1.67 Upside
Sat Jun 5
TBD
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.75 1.64 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 World Class FC 3300 212+19 93.00 WWW -2.22 +0.17 98% 2.1
2 FC DELCO 7610 376+31 192.71 WWWWD -0.74 +0.13 100% 1.6
3 Pipeline SC 4301 233+20 92.25 WWWL -2.04 +0.28 87% 3.2
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 122+10 92.25 WWLW +0.41 -0.13 77% 3.7
5 Maryland United FC 8422 129+3 141.75 WDLWW +0.78 -0.27 8% 6.1
6 Delaware FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DLWWL -0.81 +0.26 2% 7.2
7 STA 6303 2612+14 91.50 WLWWL -0.08 +0.01 27% 5.2
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6222 2315+8 81.33 LLDWD -0.60 +0.26 1% 7.6
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5131 1014-4 61.20 DDDLW +0.41 +0.03 0% 9.9
10 PDA 3102 26-4 31.00 LLW +0.88 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Baltimore Celtic 5113 510-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.43 +0.04 0% 10.8
12 SJEB FC 5104 1316-3 30.60 LLLLW -0.75 +0.28 0% 10.9
13 PSA Monmouth 5023 513-8 20.40 LLDDL +0.22 +0.12 0% 12.2
14 Match Fit Surf 7007 086-86 00.00 LLLLL +1.25 +0.43 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.