Baltimore Celtic
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · Baltimore Celtic Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM
Orangetown Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.0 against · 0.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Baltimore Celtic | World Class FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 7.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at PSA Monmouth | 15–0 vs Match Fit Surf |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs FC DELCO | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.55 | +2.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.43 | -2.22 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
World Class FC score 7.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
World Class FC concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs FC DELCO, 0–1 at Delaware FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 5%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
World Class FC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:15 PM at Orangetown Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
PDA sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above PDA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the World Class FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Baltimore Celtic – World Class FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 2 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 22%
- 11th 23%
- 12th 23%
- 13th 12%
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | World Class FC | 3.00 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.30) | 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection |
| 2 | FC DELCO | 2.71 (+1.91) | 1st (2.42) | 67 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection |
| 3 | Pipeline SC | 2.25 (+1.45) | 3rd (2.10) | 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection |
| 4 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 2.25 (+1.45) | 4th (2.02) | 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection |
| 5 | Maryland United FC | 1.75 (+0.95) | 6th (1.64) | 42 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 6 | Delaware FC | 1.67 (+0.87) | 7th (1.46) | 40 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 7 | STA | 1.50 (+0.70) | 5th (1.78) | 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 8 | Potomac Soccer Association | 1.33 (+0.53) | 8th (1.42) | 31 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 9 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 1.20 (+0.40) | 9th (1.10) | 28 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 10 | PDA | 1.00 (+0.20) | 10th (1.03) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Baltimore Celtic to World Class FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 9th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:15 PM |
World Class FC 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–3 | 0.24 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
USTC |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8 |
Home Northwest Regional Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM |
STA 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14 |
Home Glenelg Country School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Pipeline SC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Notre Dame Prepatory School |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.28 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
PDA 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Match Fit Surf 14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 0.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 08:00 AM |
SJEB FC 12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 0.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Maryland United FC 5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
FC DELCO 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.19 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Delaware FC 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
World Class FC 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 12:00 PM |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.11 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.70 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Pipeline SC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.44 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
PDA 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 10:00 AM |
SJEB FC 12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Match Fit Surf 14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 1.00 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
STA 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 0.98 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | World Class FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -2.22 | +0.17 | 98% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Delaware FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC DELCO | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 6 | +31 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | -0.74 | +0.13 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Nov 1 at PDA · Sat Nov 7 at SJEB FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Pipeline SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -2.04 | +0.28 | 87% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at STA · Sat Oct 24 vs PDA · Sun Oct 25 at FC DELCO See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.41 | -0.13 | 77% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sun Nov 1 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at PSA Monmouth See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Maryland United FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 | 1.75 | WDLWW | +0.78 | -0.27 | 7% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA · Sun Nov 8 vs STA · Sat Nov 21 at PSA Monmouth See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Delaware FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWL | -0.81 | +0.26 | 2% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at World Class FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC · Sun Oct 25 at Potomac Soccer Association See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | STA | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWWL | -0.08 | +0.01 | 27% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Oct 25 vs SJEB FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA Monmouth See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Potomac Soccer Association | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 8 | 1.33 | LLDWD | -0.60 | +0.26 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 at Baltimore Celtic · Sun Nov 8 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | DDDLW | +0.41 | +0.03 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | PDA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.88 | +0.00 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pipeline SC · Sun Oct 25 at Maryland United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC DELCO See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Baltimore Celtic | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | WDLLL | +0.43 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Potomac Soccer Association See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | SJEB FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.75 | +0.28 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC · Sun Oct 25 at STA · Sun Nov 1 vs World Class FC See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | PSA Monmouth | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | LLDDL | +0.22 | +0.12 | 0% | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf · Sun Nov 1 at STA · Sat Nov 7 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Match Fit Surf | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 86 | -86 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.25 | +0.43 | 0% | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth · Sat Nov 7 vs PDA · Sat Nov 21 at Baltimore Celtic See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.