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Baltimore Celtic

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 14 teams · Baltimore Celtic Soccer Club (all teams)

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11th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-5 goal diff · 5–10
WDLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.8
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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Baltimore Celtic
11th · 0.80 PPG
at
World Class FC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Orangetown Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.0 against · 0.24 expected points)

Season so farBaltimore CelticWorld Class FC
Position11th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-1-33-0-0
Points per game0.803.00
Goals for / game1.07.0
Goals against / game2.00.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L D WW W W
Biggest win1–0 at PSA Monmouth15–0 vs Match Fit Surf
Worst loss0–4 vs FC DELCO—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.55+2.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-2.22

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    World Class FC score 7.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    World Class FC concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs FC DELCO, 0–1 at Delaware FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 5%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    World Class FC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:15 PM at Orangetown Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    PDA sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.

    A point moves us above PDA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the World Class FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Baltimore Celtic – World Class FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.17 PPG
10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.83 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.67 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 22%
  11. 11th 23%
  12. 12th 23%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 World Class FC 3.00 (+2.20) 2nd (2.30) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
2 FC DELCO 2.71 (+1.91) 1st (2.42) 67 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection
3 Pipeline SC 2.25 (+1.45) 3rd (2.10) 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2.25 (+1.45) 4th (2.02) 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
5 Maryland United FC 1.75 (+0.95) 6th (1.64) 42 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 Delaware FC 1.67 (+0.87) 7th (1.46) 40 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
7 STA 1.50 (+0.70) 5th (1.78) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
8 Potomac Soccer Association 1.33 (+0.53) 8th (1.42) 31 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 1.20 (+0.40) 9th (1.10) 28 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
10 PDA 1.00 (+0.20) 10th (1.03) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Baltimore Celtic to World Class FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
4 favour them
-4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 1–3 0–4 16–0 0–15 5–2 1–3 0–1 6–0 Baltimore Celtic 11th PSA Monmouth 13th FC DELCO 2nd Delaware FC 6th PDA 10th Match Fit Surf 14th STA 7th World Class FC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 9th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–3 0.24 0.71 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
USTC
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.42 0.67 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Home
Northwest Regional Park
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 0.70 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Home
Glenelg Country School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.67 0.70 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.28 0.66 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
PDA Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 0.71 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.96 0.90 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
08:00 AM
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.43 0.94 Upside
Sat Dec 19
TBD
PSA Monmouth
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.69 0.99 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
TBD
Maryland United FC
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.99 0.99 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD
FC DELCO
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +31
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.19 0.94 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Delaware FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 0.95 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
World Class FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19
Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.92 Upside
Sat Mar 27
12:00 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
9th · 1-3-1 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.11 0.93 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.59 0.91 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.70 0.90 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Pipeline SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.44 0.88 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
PDA
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.50 0.91 Upside
Sat May 15
10:00 AM
SJEB FC
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 0.92 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Match Fit Surf
14th · 0-0-7 · GD -86
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.92 1.00 Bank it
Sun May 23
TBD
STA
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +14
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.98 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 World Class FC 3300 212+19 93.00 WWW -2.22 +0.17 98% 2.1
2 FC DELCO 7610 376+31 192.71 WWWWD -0.74 +0.13 100% 1.5
3 Pipeline SC 4301 233+20 92.25 WWWL -2.04 +0.28 87% 3.2
4 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 122+10 92.25 WWLW +0.41 -0.13 77% 3.8
5 Maryland United FC 8422 129+3 141.75 WDLWW +0.78 -0.27 7% 6.1
6 Delaware FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DLWWL -0.81 +0.26 2% 7.2
7 STA 6303 2612+14 91.50 WLWWL -0.08 +0.01 27% 5.2
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6222 2315+8 81.33 LLDWD -0.60 +0.26 1% 7.5
9 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5131 1014-4 61.20 DDDLW +0.41 +0.03 0% 9.9
10 PDA 3102 26-4 31.00 LLW +0.88 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Baltimore Celtic 5113 510-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.43 +0.04 0% 10.8
12 SJEB FC 5104 1316-3 30.60 LLLLW -0.75 +0.28 0% 10.9
13 PSA Monmouth 5023 513-8 20.40 LLDDL +0.22 +0.12 0% 12.2
14 Match Fit Surf 7007 086-86 00.00 LLLLL +1.25 +0.43 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.