WNY Flash Rochester

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+8 goal diff · 17–9

DWLWWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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WNY Flash Rochester
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
8th · 0.33 PPG

Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

65% 17% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.13 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash Rochester	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Position	2nd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	0-2-4
Points per game	2.17	0.33
Goals for / game	2.8	1.0
Goals against / game	1.5	2.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W L W D	L D L L D
Biggest win	5–1 vs T3FC East	—
Worst loss	0–2 at Croatia Juniors	0–3 vs Croatia Juniors
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.79	-0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.45	+0.23

Common opponents: Cleveland Force SC — we 4–2; they 1–2. Upper 90 FC — we 3–3; they 1–1. Rochester NY FC — we 2–0; they 2–2. Croatia Juniors — we 0–2; they 0–3. T3FC East — we 5–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Croatia Juniors.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 17% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Montour Junction Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Rochester – Pittsburgh Riverhounds) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Win 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 1.86 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 36%
3rd 53%
4th 9%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Steel City FC	3.00 (+0.83)	1st (2.74)	38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Rochester to Pittsburgh Riverhounds through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

3 even

6 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7	Away far trip Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	2.16	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM	Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Away far trip No Offseason	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.43	1.95	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.90	1.94	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–0	2.54	2.00	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Home	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.25	1.93	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–1	2.36	1.97	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–3	0.63	1.87	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.64	1.92	Bank it
Sat May 15 10:30 AM	T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Home Glacier Ridge Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	3–1	2.19	1.94	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.46	1.97	Bank it
Sun May 16 TBD	Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.96	1.97	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Steel City FC

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.37

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	T3FC East (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	8–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	T3FC East (4th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun May 16	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester

2.17

DWLWW

-0.45

+0.05

99%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	T3FC East (4th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat May 15	vs	T3FC East (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Croatia Juniors

2.00

WLWWD

-0.01

-0.20

99%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 8	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC East

-3

1.80

LWLWW

+0.22

-0.06

56%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 8	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun May 9	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC

1.33

DDLLW

+0.01

-0.02

38%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	T3FC East (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 9	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-7

1.20

LWWLL

+0.24

+0.01

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rochester NY FC

-10

0.60

LDLDD

+0.43

+0.12

7.5

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

-7

0.33

DLLDL

+0.23

-0.09

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 16	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-12

0.17

LLDLL

-0.06

+0.29

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.