Upper 90 FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · Upper 90 FC (all teams)

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5th

2-2-2 record · 6 played

1.33 points per game

+0 goal diff · 9–9

DDLLWlast 5

40% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Upper 90 FC
5th · 1.33 PPG

Rochester NY FC
7th · 0.60 PPG

Gameday Sports, Field 2 ↗

63% 21% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.0 for, 0.9 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so far	Upper 90 FC	Rochester NY FC
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-2	0-3-2
Points per game	1.33	0.60
Goals for / game	1.5	0.6
Goals against / game	1.5	2.6
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	3
Form (recent first)	W L L D D	D D L D L
Biggest win	3–0 vs WNY Flash	—
Worst loss	0–3 at Steel City FC	0–8 at Steel City FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.01	-1.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.01	+0.43

Common opponents: WNY Flash — we 3–0; they 0–0. WNY Flash Rochester — we 3–3; they 0–2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–1; they 2–2. Steel City FC — we 0–3; they 0–8.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Rochester NY FC average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Steel City FC, 0–1 vs T3FC East.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 63% / draw 21% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rochester NY FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Upper 90 FC – Rochester NY FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.57 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.57 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.29 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.14 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

40% top 4

61% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 5%
4th 34%
5th 44%
6th 12%
7th 3%
8th 1%
9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Steel City FC	3.00 (+1.67)	1st (2.74)	40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	WNY Flash Rochester	2.17 (+0.84)	3rd (1.97)	27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Croatia Juniors	2.00 (+0.67)	2nd (2.05)	24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4	T3FC East	1.80 (+0.47)	4th (1.46)	21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Upper 90 FC to Rochester NY FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

3 even

6 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10	Home Gameday Sports	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–0	2.11	1.44	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM	Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Home Gameday Sports	●●●●● Very tough	22%	0–1	0.91	1.38	Upside
Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM	Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10	Away far trip RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–1	1.88	1.43	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7	Home Gameday Sports	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–1	1.89	1.48	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 11:45 AM	Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Home Gameday Sports	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.42	1.38	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.40	1.38	Upside
Sun Apr 18 03:15 PM	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home Gameday Sports	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.98	1.43	Swing game
Sun May 9 TBD	Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	17%	0–1	0.72	1.38	Upside
Sat May 15 09:30 AM	WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12	Away far trip Flash Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.03	1.42	Swing game
Sun May 16 TBD	WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.85	1.39	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Steel City FC

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.37

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	T3FC East (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	8–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	T3FC East (4th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun May 16	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester

2.17

DWLWW

-0.45

+0.05

98%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	T3FC East (4th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat May 15	vs	T3FC East (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Croatia Juniors

2.00

WLWWD

-0.01

-0.20

99%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 8	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC East

-3

1.80

LWLWW

+0.22

-0.06

56%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 8	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun May 9	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC

1.33

DDLLW

+0.01

-0.02

40%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	T3FC East (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 9	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-7

1.20

LWWLL

+0.24

+0.01

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rochester NY FC

-10

0.60

LDLDD

+0.43

+0.12

7.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

-7

0.33

DLLDL

+0.23

-0.09

7.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 16	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-12

0.17

LLDLL

-0.06

+0.29

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.