Steel City FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · Steel City FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.7 for, 0.5 against · 2.91 expected points)
| Season so far | Steel City FC | WNY Flash |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-0 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L D L L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Rochester NY FC | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 at Croatia Juniors |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.39 | -1.31 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | -0.06 |
Common opponents: Rochester NY FC — we 8–0; they 0–0. Croatia Juniors — we 2–0; they 0–5. T3FC East — we 4–2; they 2–3. Cleveland Force SC — we 6–0; they 0–1. Upper 90 FC — we 3–0; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
WNY Flash average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Steel City FC – WNY Flash) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 98%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
21 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Steel City FC to WNY Flash through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.37 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.96 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Home No Offseason |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.91 | 2.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home No Offseason |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 11:45 AM |
Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gameday Sports |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.44 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.77 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 10:45 AM |
WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.85 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.80 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 2.80 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.80 | 2.80 | Bank it |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.84 | 2.74 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steel City FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | +23 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.33 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | DWLWW | -0.45 | +0.05 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Croatia Juniors | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WLWWD | -0.01 | -0.20 | 99% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | T3FC East | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | +0.22 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Upper 90 FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | +0.01 | -0.02 | 40% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.24 | +0.01 | 5% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rochester NY FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LDLDD | +0.43 | +0.12 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLDL | +0.23 | -0.09 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | -0.06 | +0.29 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.