T3FC East
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · T3 Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Victory Sports Park, Field 2 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.75 expected points)
| Season so far | T3FC East | Croatia Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W L | D W W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5–0 vs WNY Flash |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at WNY Flash Rochester | 0–2 at Steel City FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.28 | +0.94 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.22 | -0.01 |
Common opponents: Steel City FC — we 2–4; they 0–2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 2–1; they 3–0. WNY Flash Rochester — we 1–5; they 2–0. WNY Flash — we 3–2; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Croatia Juniors concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Croatia Juniors sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.A win moves us above Croatia Juniors on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Croatia Juniors game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (T3FC East – Croatia Juniors) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 44%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steel City FC | 3.00 (+1.20) | 1st (2.74) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash Rochester | 2.17 (+0.37) | 3rd (1.97) | 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Croatia Juniors | 2.00 (+0.20) | 2nd (2.05) | Win next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link T3FC East to Croatia Juniors through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Victory Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM |
Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Home Victory Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.17 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 10:30 AM |
WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Glacier Ridge Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.66 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 1.46 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Steel City FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | +23 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.33 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | DWLWW | -0.45 | +0.05 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Croatia Juniors | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WLWWD | -0.01 | -0.20 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | T3FC East | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | +0.22 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Upper 90 FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | +0.01 | -0.02 | 40% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.24 | +0.01 | 6% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rochester NY FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LDLDD | +0.43 | +0.12 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLDL | +0.23 | -0.09 | 1% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | -0.06 | +0.29 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.