Rochester NY FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · RNY FC Youth (all teams)

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7th

0-3-2 record · 5 played

0.60 points per game

-10 goal diff · 3–13

LDLDDlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5

+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Rochester NY FC
7th · 0.60 PPG

Upper 90 FC
5th · 1.33 PPG

Gameday Sports, Field 2 ↗ far trip

16% 21% 63%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.0 against · 0.68 expected points)

Season so far	Rochester NY FC	Upper 90 FC
Position	7th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	0-3-2	2-2-2
Points per game	0.60	1.33
Goals for / game	0.6	1.5
Goals against / game	2.6	1.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	3	2
Form (recent first)	D D L D L	W L L D D
Biggest win	—	3–0 vs WNY Flash
Worst loss	0–8 at Steel City FC	0–3 at Steel City FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.06	-0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.43	+0.01

Common opponents: Steel City FC — we 0–8; they 0–3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 2–2; they 1–1. WNY Flash Rochester — we 0–2; they 3–3. WNY Flash — we 0–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–8 at Steel City FC, 0–2 vs WNY Flash Rochester, 0–0 vs WNY Flash.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 16%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Gameday Sports.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Upper 90 FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester NY FC – Upper 90 FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.50 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2
Win 1.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Draw 0.67 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2
Loss 0.50 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

7.5 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 2%
6th 16%
7th 27%
8th 39%
9th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Steel City FC	3.00 (+2.40)	1st (2.74)	51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	WNY Flash Rochester	2.17 (+1.57)	3rd (1.97)	37 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3	Croatia Juniors	2.00 (+1.40)	2nd (2.05)	33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4	T3FC East	1.80 (+1.20)	4th (1.46)	30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5	Upper 90 FC	1.33 (+0.73)	5th (1.39)	21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6	Cleveland Force SC	1.20 (+0.60)	6th (1.03)	19 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Rochester NY FC to Upper 90 FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

3 even

11 favour them

-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Gameday Sports	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–2	0.68	0.61	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM	T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Victory Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.73	0.63	Upside
Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM	Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0	Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.88	0.66	Upside
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.05	0.70	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–3	0.34	0.67	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	WNY Flash 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.42	0.74	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.14	0.69	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7	Home	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.24	0.73	Upside
Sat May 1 12:00 PM	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home Geneseo Central School District athletic complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.30	0.77	Upside
Sun May 2 11:00 AM	Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.45	0.75	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–2	0.96	0.76	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.14	0.73	Upside
Sun May 16 11:00 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7	Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.24	0.75	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Steel City FC

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.37

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	T3FC East (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	8–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	T3FC East (4th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun May 16	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester

2.17

DWLWW

-0.45

+0.05

98%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	T3FC East (4th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat May 15	vs	T3FC East (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Croatia Juniors

2.00

WLWWD

-0.01

-0.20

99%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 8	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC East

-3

1.80

LWLWW

+0.22

-0.06

54%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 8	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun May 9	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC

1.33

DDLLW

+0.01

-0.02

42%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	T3FC East (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 9	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-7

1.20

LWWLL

+0.24

+0.01

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	2–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rochester NY FC

-10

0.60

LDLDD

+0.43

+0.12

7.5

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 9	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

-7

0.33

DLLDL

+0.23

-0.09

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Steel City FC (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	T3FC East (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	WNY Flash (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 16	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-12

0.17

LLDLL

-0.06

+0.29

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	T3FC East (4th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Rochester NY FC (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	T3FC East (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Croatia Juniors (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Rochester NY FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Steel City FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash Rochester (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Upper 90 FC (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.