WNY Flash
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
No Offseason, Soccer 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.5 for, 4.7 against · 0.06 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | Steel City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-5 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.17 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 8–0 vs Rochester NY FC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Croatia Juniors | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.31 | +2.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | -0.33 |
Common opponents: Upper 90 FC — we 0–3; they 3–0. Cleveland Force SC — we 0–1; they 6–0. Croatia Juniors — we 0–5; they 2–0. Rochester NY FC — we 0–0; they 8–0. T3FC East — we 2–3; they 4–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Steel City FC score 4.3/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Steel City FC concede only 0.5/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at Upper 90 FC, 0–1 at Cleveland Force SC, 0–5 at Croatia Juniors, 0–0 at Rochester NY FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Steel City FC have won 6 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at No Offseason.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 8th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.17.A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Steel City FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – Steel City FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.14 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.57 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 2 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.29 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.14 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th 1%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 21%
- 9th 72%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steel City FC | 3.00 (+2.83) | 1st (2.74) | 47 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash Rochester | 2.17 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.97) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Croatia Juniors | 2.00 (+1.83) | 2nd (2.05) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | T3FC East | 1.80 (+1.63) | 4th (1.46) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Upper 90 FC | 1.33 (+1.16) | 5th (1.39) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | Cleveland Force SC | 1.20 (+1.03) | 6th (1.03) | 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Rochester NY FC | 0.60 (+0.43) | 8th (0.75) | 9 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.33 (+0.16) | 7th (0.83) | A point next game |
How the results connect
21 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link WNY Flash to Steel City FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.29 · 1st hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
No Offseason |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.06 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.86 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
T3FC East 4th · 3-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.37 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Rochester NY FC 7th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:45 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -7 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:45 AM |
Steel City FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.10 | 0.41 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.26 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 09:30 AM |
Upper 90 FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.75 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 02:00 PM |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 0.47 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Steel City FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | +23 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.33 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | DWLWW | -0.45 | +0.05 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Croatia Juniors | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WLWWD | -0.01 | -0.20 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East · Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | T3FC East | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | +0.22 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Upper 90 FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | +0.01 | -0.02 | 40% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.24 | +0.01 | 6% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rochester NY FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LDLDD | +0.43 | +0.12 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East · Sat Mar 6 vs Upper 90 FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLDL | +0.23 | -0.09 | 1% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | -0.06 | +0.29 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.