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West Side Alliance

ECNL Girls · Texas GU14 · 16 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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14th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-11 goal diff · 3–14
WLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.5
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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West Side Alliance
14th · 0.67 PPG
vs
DKSC
5th · 2.00 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.8 for, 2.0 against · 0.63 expected points)

Season so farWest Side AllianceDKSC
Position14th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-42-0-1
Points per game0.672.00
Goals for / game0.51.7
Goals against / game2.31.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)D L L L WW L W
Biggest win2–1 vs Lonestar ATX Red2–1 at Dallas Texans
Worst loss0–5 at FC Dallas Youth1–2 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.14+0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+0.55

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 at Sting Royal, 0–5 at FC Dallas Youth, 0–1 at Challenge SC, 0–0 at Albion Hurricanes FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Albion Hurricanes FC sit 13th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Albion Hurricanes FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance – DKSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.57 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 3
Draw
0.71 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.57 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 10%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 19%
  14. 14th 26%
  15. 15th 23%
  16. 16th 7%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.44) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.93) 2nd (2.27) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Royal 2.50 (+1.83) 3rd (2.10) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.25 (+1.58) 7th (1.69) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 DKSC 2.00 (+1.33) 5th (1.73) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 FC Westlake 1.88 (+1.21) 4th (1.79) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+1.00) 6th (1.73) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Colorado Rush 1.67 (+1.00) 8th (1.67) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Challenge SC 1.67 (+1.00) 10th (1.43) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+0.66) 9th (1.55) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Colorado Storm 0.80 (+0.13) 12th (0.85) A point next game
12 Dallas Texans 0.71 (+0.04) 11th (0.93) Already ahead
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 0.67 (+0.00) 15th (0.60) Already ahead

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance to DKSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
10 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 5–3 1–2 2–1 0–1 1–2 1–2 2–5 2–1 1–5 1–0 0–1 0–3 1–3 0–5 3–3 1–3 0–0 1–8 West Side Alliance 14th Sting Royal 3rd Lonestar ATX Red 15th FC Westlake 6th Challenge SC 9th FC Dallas Youth 2nd Albion Hurricanes FC 13th Real Colorado Natio… 7th Dallas Texans 12th SOLAR SC 1st DKSC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 7th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
DKSC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.63 0.66 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Sting Black
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +0
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 0.67 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.45 0.64 Upside
Sun Dec 6
11:00 AM
Dallas Texans
12th · 1-2-4 · GD -5
Away far trip
Heritage High School
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.88 0.67 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
SOLAR SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +14
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.27 0.63 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
11th · 2-2-6 · GD -7
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–1 1.10 0.67 Upside
Sun Jan 31
09:00 AM
Real Colorado National
7th · 6-2-4 · GD +10
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.49 0.66 Upside
Sat Feb 6
11:15 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-1-6 · GD -16
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.45 0.71 Upside
Sun Feb 7
TBD
Colorado Rush
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.40 0.69 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 217+14 183.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.10 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth 5410 154+11 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.11 94% 2.3
3 Sting Royal 6501 158+7 152.50 WWWWL +0.13 -0.14 80% 3.4
4 Sting Black 4301 88+0 92.25 LWWW +0.08 -0.03 21% 6.8
5 DKSC 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.55 -0.15 27% 6.4
6 FC Westlake 8503 1813+5 151.88 LWWLW -0.08 +0.07 31% 5.7
7 Real Colorado National 12624 2919+10 201.67 LDLLW +0.05 -0.45 17% 6.0
8 Colorado Rush 6312 115+6 101.67 WWDLW -0.45 +0.23 20% 6.6
9 Challenge SC 6312 87+1 101.67 LLWWD -0.28 +0.21 4% 8.7
10 OK Energy FC 6222 129+3 81.33 WLLDD +0.06 -0.08 9% 7.7
11 Colorado Storm 10226 1017-7 80.80 DLDLL +0.03 +0.14 0% 12.3
12 Dallas Texans 7124 611-5 50.71 DDLWL +0.22 -0.12 0% 11.8
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 6042 313-10 40.67 DDLDD -0.29 +0.34 0% 14.1
14 West Side Alliance 6114 314-11 40.67 WLLLD +0.06 +0.09 0% 13.5
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1120-9 40.50 LDWLL -0.08 +0.24 0% 13.3
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7016 319-16 10.14 DLLLL -0.07 +0.32 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.