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Albion Hurricanes FC

ECNL Girls · Texas GU14 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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13th
0-4-2 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-10 goal diff · 3–13
DDLDDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.1
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD

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Albion Hurricanes FC
13th · 0.67 PPG
vs
Challenge SC
9th · 1.67 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.7 against · 0.78 expected points)

Season so farAlbion Hurricanes FCChallenge SC
Position13th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-4-23-1-2
Points per game0.671.67
Goals for / game0.51.3
Goals against / game2.21.2
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless42
Form (recent first)D D L D DD W W L L
Biggest win—3–1 vs Real Colorado Athletico
Worst loss1–8 at Real Colorado National0–3 at Real Colorado National
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.18+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.28

Common opponents: Colorado Rush — we 0–3; they 0–1. Real Colorado Athletico — we 0–0; they 3–1. Colorado Storm — we 0–0; they 3–1. Real Colorado National — we 1–8; they 0–3. OK Energy FC — we 2–2; they 1–1. West Side Alliance — we 0–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs Colorado Rush, 0–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico, 0–0 at Colorado Storm, 0–0 vs West Side Alliance.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 18%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans sit 12th on 0.71 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Challenge SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albion Hurricanes FC – Challenge SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.57 PPG
14th▼ down 1 13th— holds 16th▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 14th▼ down 1
Draw
0.71 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 16th▼ down 3
Loss
0.57 PPG
14th▼ down 1 13th— holds 16th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–1 loss we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 24%
  15. 15th 40%
  16. 16th 9%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.44) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.93) 2nd (2.27) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Royal 2.50 (+1.83) 3rd (2.10) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.25 (+1.58) 7th (1.69) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 DKSC 2.00 (+1.33) 5th (1.73) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 FC Westlake 1.88 (+1.21) 4th (1.79) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+1.00) 6th (1.73) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Colorado Rush 1.67 (+1.00) 8th (1.67) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Challenge SC 1.67 (+1.00) 10th (1.43) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+0.66) 9th (1.55) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Colorado Storm 0.80 (+0.13) 12th (0.85) A point next game
12 Dallas Texans 0.71 (+0.04) 11th (0.93) Already ahead

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Albion Hurricanes FC to Challenge SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–1 0–0 0–1 0–0 1–3 0–0 1–3 0–3 1–0 1–8 3–0 2–0 0–2 0–1 4–0 Albion Hurricanes FC 13th OK Energy FC 10th West Side Alliance 14th Colorado Storm 11th Real Colorado Athle… 16th Colorado Rush 8th Real Colorado Natio… 7th Challenge SC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 1st hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Challenge SC
9th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.78 0.68 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Sting Royal
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.44 0.65 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.29 0.61 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
DKSC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.46 0.60 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Sting Black
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +0
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.50 0.59 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
15th · 1-1-6 · GD -9
Away far trip
St. Andrew's Episcopal School
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 0.61 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Dallas Texans
12th · 1-2-4 · GD -5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
0–1 1.06 0.64 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
SOLAR SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.26 0.62 Upside
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
FC Westlake
6th · 5-0-3 · GD +5
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.38 0.60 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 217+14 183.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.10 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth 5410 154+11 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.11 94% 2.3
3 Sting Royal 6501 158+7 152.50 WWWWL +0.13 -0.14 78% 3.5
4 Sting Black 4301 88+0 92.25 LWWW +0.08 -0.03 20% 6.9
5 DKSC 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.55 -0.15 28% 6.2
6 FC Westlake 8503 1813+5 151.88 LWWLW -0.08 +0.07 31% 5.7
7 Real Colorado National 12624 2919+10 201.67 LDLLW +0.05 -0.45 18% 6.0
8 Colorado Rush 6312 115+6 101.67 WWDLW -0.45 +0.23 20% 6.7
9 Challenge SC 6312 87+1 101.67 LLWWD -0.28 +0.21 3% 8.8
10 OK Energy FC 6222 129+3 81.33 WLLDD +0.06 -0.08 9% 7.7
11 Colorado Storm 10226 1017-7 80.80 DLDLL +0.03 +0.14 0% 12.3
12 Dallas Texans 7124 611-5 50.71 DDLWL +0.22 -0.12 0% 11.8
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 6042 313-10 40.67 DDLDD -0.29 +0.34 0% 14.1
14 West Side Alliance 6114 314-11 40.67 WLLLD +0.06 +0.09 0% 13.6
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1120-9 40.50 LDWLL -0.08 +0.24 0% 13.3
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7016 319-16 10.14 DLLLL -0.07 +0.32 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.