TableChase Clubs

Colorado Storm

ECNL Girls · Texas GU14 · 16 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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11th
2-2-6 record · 10 played
0.80 points per game
-7 goal diff · 10–17
DLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.3
+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:15 AM

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Colorado Storm
11th · 0.80 PPG
at
Real Colorado National
7th · 1.67 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.4 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farColorado StormReal Colorado National
Position11th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-66-2-4
Points per game0.801.67
Goals for / game1.02.4
Goals against / game1.71.6
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L D L DW L L D L
Biggest win3–0 vs Lonestar ATX Red8–1 vs Albion Hurricanes FC
Worst loss0–3 vs FC Westlake3–5 at Sting Royal
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.55+0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.03+0.05

Common opponents: Real Colorado Athletico — we 2–0; they 2–0. Lonestar ATX Red — we 3–0; they 1–0. FC Westlake — we 0–3; they 3–1. FC Dallas Youth — we 1–3; they 3–3. Sting Royal — we 0–1; they 3–5. Albion Hurricanes FC — we 0–0; they 8–1. Challenge SC — we 1–3; they 3–0. Dallas Texans — we 1–1; they 1–1. SOLAR SC — we 0–3; they 2–4. Sting Black — we 2–3; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Real Colorado National score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Westlake, 0–1 at Sting Royal, 0–0 vs Albion Hurricanes FC, 0–3 at SOLAR SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm – Real Colorado National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.73 PPG
11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 5
Win
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.82 PPG
11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4
Loss
0.73 PPG
11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 24%
  12. 12th 31%
  13. 13th 23%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.44) 37 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.80) 2nd (2.27) 31 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Royal 2.50 (+1.70) 3rd (2.10) 30 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.25 (+1.45) 7th (1.69) 26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 DKSC 2.00 (+1.20) 5th (1.73) 22 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 FC Westlake 1.88 (+1.08) 4th (1.79) 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+0.87) 6th (1.73) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Colorado Rush 1.67 (+0.87) 8th (1.67) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Challenge SC 1.67 (+0.87) 10th (1.43) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+0.53) 9th (1.55) 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

41 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm to Real Colorado National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
8 even
25 favour them
-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–1 1–1 1–1 2–0 0–2 0–3 4–2 0–1 5–3 1–3 3–3 3–0 0–1 1–3 0–3 0–3 1–3 0–0 1–8 1–0 4–1 Colorado Storm 11th Sting Black 4th Dallas Texans 12th Real Colorado Athle… 16th SOLAR SC 1st Sting Royal 3rd FC Dallas Youth 2nd Lonestar ATX Red 15th Challenge SC 9th FC Westlake 6th Albion Hurricanes FC 13th Real Colorado Natio… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 18
01:30 PM
no score posted
DKSC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.95 0.81 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:15 AM
Real Colorado National
7th · 6-2-4 · GD +10
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.60 0.80 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
West Side Alliance
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -11
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.62 0.86 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–2 0.73 0.85 Upside
Sat Feb 20
09:00 AM
Colorado Rush
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Regis University · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.82 0.85 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 217+14 183.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.10 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth 5410 154+11 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.11 94% 2.3
3 Sting Royal 6501 158+7 152.50 WWWWL +0.13 -0.14 80% 3.4
4 Sting Black 4301 88+0 92.25 LWWW +0.08 -0.03 21% 6.8
5 DKSC 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.55 -0.15 27% 6.4
6 FC Westlake 8503 1813+5 151.88 LWWLW -0.08 +0.07 31% 5.7
7 Real Colorado National 12624 2919+10 201.67 LDLLW +0.05 -0.45 17% 6.0
8 Colorado Rush 6312 115+6 101.67 WWDLW -0.45 +0.23 20% 6.6
9 Challenge SC 6312 87+1 101.67 LLWWD -0.28 +0.21 4% 8.7
10 OK Energy FC 6222 129+3 81.33 WLLDD +0.06 -0.08 9% 7.7
11 Colorado Storm 10226 1017-7 80.80 DLDLL +0.03 +0.14 0% 12.3
12 Dallas Texans 7124 611-5 50.71 DDLWL +0.22 -0.12 0% 11.8
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 6042 313-10 40.67 DDLDD -0.29 +0.34 0% 14.1
14 West Side Alliance 6114 314-11 40.67 WLLLD +0.06 +0.09 0% 13.5
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1120-9 40.50 LDWLL -0.08 +0.24 0% 13.3
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7016 319-16 10.14 DLLLL -0.07 +0.32 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.