TableChase Clubs

DKSC

ECNL Girls · Texas GU14 · 16 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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5th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+1 goal diff · 5–4
WLWlast 3
29% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2
+0.55 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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DKSC
5th · 2.00 PPG
at
West Side Alliance
14th · 0.67 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.0 for, 0.8 against · 2.17 expected points)

Season so farDKSCWest Side Alliance
Position5th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-11-1-4
Points per game2.000.67
Goals for / game1.70.5
Goals against / game1.32.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W L WD L L L W
Biggest win2–1 at Dallas Texans2–1 vs Lonestar ATX Red
Worst loss1–2 at SOLAR SC0–5 at FC Dallas Youth
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.32-1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.55+0.06

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    West Side Alliance average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 20% / loss 14%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at RiverCity Parks.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sting Black sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A win moves us above Sting Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
2.25 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 4 10th▼ down 5 10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
29% top 4
72% below the top 4
6.2 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.44) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+0.60) 2nd (2.27) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Sting Royal 2.50 (+0.50) 3rd (2.10) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Sting Black 2.25 (+0.25) 7th (1.69) Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
0 favour them
+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–0 1–2 3–5 2–0 1–2 5–2 2–1 2–1 0–1 5–1 3–0 1–0 3–1 3–3 5–0 3–1 8–1 0–0 DKSC 5th Real Colorado Natio… 7th SOLAR SC 1st Dallas Texans 12th Lonestar ATX Red 15th Sting Royal 3rd FC Westlake 6th Challenge SC 9th FC Dallas Youth 2nd Albion Hurricanes FC 13th West Side Alliance 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 18
01:30 PM
no score posted
Colorado Storm
11th · 2-2-6 · GD -7
Away far trip
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.81 1.95 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
West Side Alliance
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -11
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–0 2.17 2.00 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 1.87 Upside
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
Colorado Rush
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.31 1.79 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-1-6 · GD -16
Home
Clark East Field
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 1.89 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Albion Hurricanes FC
13th · 0-4-2 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.38 1.94 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Challenge SC
9th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.67 1.91 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.29 1.86 Upside
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 0.97 1.78 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
FC Westlake
6th · 5-0-3 · GD +5
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.22 1.74 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Red
15th · 1-1-6 · GD -9
Away far trip
St. Andrew's Episcopal School
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.93 1.75 Swing game
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
Sting Black
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +0
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.73 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 217+14 183.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.10 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth 5410 154+11 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.11 93% 2.3
3 Sting Royal 6501 158+7 152.50 WWWWL +0.13 -0.14 78% 3.4
4 Sting Black 4301 88+0 92.25 LWWW +0.08 -0.03 20% 6.8
5 DKSC 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.55 -0.15 29% 6.2
6 FC Westlake 8503 1813+5 151.88 LWWLW -0.08 +0.07 31% 5.8
7 Real Colorado National 12624 2919+10 201.67 LDLLW +0.05 -0.45 18% 6.0
8 Colorado Rush 6312 115+6 101.67 WWDLW -0.45 +0.23 19% 6.6
9 Challenge SC 6312 87+1 101.67 LLWWD -0.28 +0.21 3% 8.8
10 OK Energy FC 6222 129+3 81.33 WLLDD +0.06 -0.08 10% 7.7
11 Colorado Storm 10226 1017-7 80.80 DLDLL +0.03 +0.14 0% 12.3
12 Dallas Texans 7124 611-5 50.71 DDLWL +0.22 -0.12 0% 11.8
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 6042 313-10 40.67 DDLDD -0.29 +0.34 0% 14.2
14 West Side Alliance 6114 314-11 40.67 WLLLD +0.06 +0.09 0% 13.6
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1120-9 40.50 LDWLL -0.08 +0.24 0% 13.2
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7016 319-16 10.14 DLLLL -0.07 +0.32 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.