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Real Colorado Athletico

ECNL Girls · Texas GU14 · 16 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

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16th
0-1-6 record · 7 played
0.14 points per game
-16 goal diff · 3–19
DLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.7
-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0.14 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.6 for, 3.3 against · 0.20 expected points)

Season so farReal Colorado AthleticoFC Dallas Youth
Position16th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-64-1-0
Points per game0.142.60
Goals for / game0.43.0
Goals against / game2.70.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L DW W W D W
Biggest win—5–0 vs West Side Alliance
Worst loss0–4 at Colorado Rush—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.56+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.07+0.02

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 0–2; they 3–1. Real Colorado National — we 0–2; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Dallas Youth score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 at Colorado Storm, 0–0 at Albion Hurricanes FC, 0–4 at Colorado Rush, 0–2 at Real Colorado National.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Dallas Youth have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Lonestar ATX Red sit 15th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.14.

    A win moves us above Lonestar ATX Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Athletico – FC Dallas Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.13 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG
16th— holds 15th▲ up 1 16th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Loss
0.13 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 13%
  16. 16th 79%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+2.86) 1st (2.44) 44 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+2.46) 2nd (2.27) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Royal 2.50 (+2.36) 3rd (2.10) 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.25 (+2.11) 7th (1.69) 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 DKSC 2.00 (+1.86) 5th (1.73) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 FC Westlake 1.88 (+1.74) 4th (1.79) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+1.53) 6th (1.73) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Colorado Rush 1.67 (+1.53) 8th (1.67) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Challenge SC 1.67 (+1.53) 10th (1.43) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+1.19) 9th (1.55) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 Colorado Storm 0.80 (+0.66) 12th (0.85) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
12 Dallas Texans 0.71 (+0.57) 11th (0.93) 10 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 0.67 (+0.53) 15th (0.60) 10 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
14 West Side Alliance 0.67 (+0.53) 14th (0.69) 10 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
15 Lonestar ATX Red 0.50 (+0.36) 13th (0.72) Win next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Athletico to FC Dallas Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
21 favour them
-4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 3–3 0–2 1–3 1–4 3–0 0–0 0–0 2–2 0–2 1–3 3–1 1–4 0–1 5–1 0–5 1–1 0–4 0–1 1–3 0–0 Real Colorado Athle… 16th Real Colorado Natio… 7th Colorado Storm 11th FC Westlake 6th Albion Hurricanes FC 13th Challenge SC 9th Lonestar ATX Red 15th Colorado Rush 8th OK Energy FC 10th West Side Alliance 14th FC Dallas Youth 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.32 · 2nd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM
FC Dallas Youth
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.20 0.15 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:15 AM
Sting Royal
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.31 0.17 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
SOLAR SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +14
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.17 0.17 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:15 AM
Dallas Texans
12th · 1-2-4 · GD -5
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
21%
0–1 0.89 0.23 Upside
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
Sting Black
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.36 0.24 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
DKSC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.33 0.25 Upside
Sat Feb 6
11:15 AM
West Side Alliance
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -11
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.27 0.32 Upside
Sun Feb 7
11:15 AM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.45 0.33 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 217+14 183.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.10 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth 5410 154+11 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.11 96% 2.2
3 Sting Royal 6501 158+7 152.50 WWWWL +0.13 -0.14 78% 3.5
4 Sting Black 4301 88+0 92.25 LWWW +0.08 -0.03 19% 6.9
5 DKSC 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.55 -0.15 27% 6.3
6 FC Westlake 8503 1813+5 151.88 LWWLW -0.08 +0.07 33% 5.7
7 Real Colorado National 12624 2919+10 201.67 LDLLW +0.05 -0.45 16% 6.0
8 Colorado Rush 6312 115+6 101.67 WWDLW -0.45 +0.23 21% 6.6
9 Challenge SC 6312 87+1 101.67 LLWWD -0.28 +0.21 3% 8.8
10 OK Energy FC 6222 129+3 81.33 WLLDD +0.06 -0.08 10% 7.6
11 Colorado Storm 10226 1017-7 80.80 DLDLL +0.03 +0.14 0% 12.3
12 Dallas Texans 7124 611-5 50.71 DDLWL +0.22 -0.12 0% 11.8
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 6042 313-10 40.67 DDLDD -0.29 +0.34 0% 14.2
14 West Side Alliance 6114 314-11 40.67 WLLLD +0.06 +0.09 0% 13.5
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1120-9 40.50 LDWLL -0.08 +0.24 0% 13.2
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7016 319-16 10.14 DLLLL -0.07 +0.32 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.