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Sporting California USA

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-16 goal diff · 2–18
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.9
+1.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Sporting California USA
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Phoenix Rising FC
4th · 2.25 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.8 for, 3.7 against · 0.21 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USAPhoenix Rising FC
Position17th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-43-0-1
Points per game0.002.25
Goals for / game0.52.8
Goals against / game4.50.8
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L L LW W L W
Biggest win—7–0 at Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss0–7 at Blues0–3 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.91+0.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.02-0.59

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Phoenix Rising FC score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Phoenix Rising FC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Blues, 0–4 vs San Diego Surf, 0–3 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Arizona Arsenal sit 16th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG
14th▲ up 3 14th▲ up 3 16th▲ up 1
Draw
0.20 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 20%
  16. 16th 27%
  17. 17th 39%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.45) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.05) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+2.60) 2nd (2.34) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Phoenix Rising FC 2.25 (+2.25) 4th (1.93) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+2.25) 7th (1.67) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Legends FC Del Mar 2.00 (+2.00) 6th (1.76) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 Blues 1.50 (+1.50) 5th (1.81) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
8 Eagles SC 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.36) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 LAFC 1.25 (+1.25) 8th (1.45) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
10 LA Breakers FC 1.25 (+1.25) 11th (1.27) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Beach Futbol Club 1.25 (+1.25) 12th (1.17) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 LV Heat Surf 1.20 (+1.20) 10th (1.35) 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 0.80 (+0.80) 13th (1.12) 12 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
14 Rebels SC 0.33 (+0.33) 14th (0.70) A point next game
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.25 (+0.25) 15th (0.57) A point next game
16 Arizona Arsenal 0.20 (+0.20) 16th (0.46) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–0 3–0 0–3 1–4 0–2 Sporting California… 17th San Diego Surf 1st Legends FC 5th Utah Royals FC-AZ 13th LV Heat Surf 12th Phoenix Rising FC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
02:00 PM
no score posted
Eagles SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.36 0.07 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.21 0.10 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.20 0.25 Upside
Sat Nov 21
02:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.27 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–1 0.90 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -16
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 0.41 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
LAFC
9th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.31 0.40 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–2 0.65 0.42 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Rebels SC
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 0.47 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.17 0.45 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 140+14 93.00 WWW -1.34 +0.18 98% 1.6
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 134+9 123.00 WWWW -1.08 +0.33 70% 3.8
3 SLAMMERS FC 5410 151+14 132.60 DWWWW -0.42 +0.08 96% 2.1
4 Phoenix Rising FC 4301 113+8 92.25 WLWW -0.59 +0.14 52% 4.7
5 Legends FC 4301 86+2 92.25 WWLW -0.32 +0.10 13% 7.0
6 Legends FC Del Mar 3201 94+5 62.00 WLW -0.49 +0.08 27% 6.0
7 Blues 2101 82+6 31.50 WL -0.83 +0.08 36% 5.5
8 Eagles SC 3111 54+1 41.33 LWD -0.37 +0.11 2% 9.4
9 LAFC 4121 76+1 51.25 DDWL +0.08 -0.00 4% 8.5
10 LA Breakers FC 4121 44+0 51.25 WDDL -0.21 +0.12 1% 10.3
11 Beach Futbol Club 4121 57-2 51.25 DDWL +0.02 +0.19 0% 11.1
12 LV Heat Surf 5203 79-2 61.20 LLWWL +0.47 -0.15 1% 9.7
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5113 39-6 40.80 LDLWL +0.91 -0.34 0% 11.7
14 Rebels SC 3012 28-6 10.33 LLD -0.15 +0.12 0% 14.4
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4013 113-12 10.25 LLDL +0.78 -0.09 0% 15.3
16 Arizona Arsenal 5014 218-16 10.20 LLLDL +0.37 +0.03 0% 15.9
17 Sporting California USA 4004 218-16 00.00 LLLL +1.02 -0.14 0% 15.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.