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Slammers FC HB Koge

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 13–4
WWWWlast 4
69% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs
SLAMMERS FC
3rd · 2.60 PPG

Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco), Field 22 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.0 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farSlammers FC HB KogeSLAMMERS FC
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-04-1-0
Points per game3.002.60
Goals for / game3.33.0
Goals against / game1.00.2
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W WW W W W D
Biggest win4–0 at Pateadores Soccer Club4–0 at Legends FC Del Mar
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.98+1.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.08-0.42

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SLAMMERS FC score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SLAMMERS FC concede only 0.2/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    SLAMMERS FC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLAMMERS FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Slammers FC HB Koge – SLAMMERS FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
69% top 4
31% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 14%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.45) Win next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Slammers FC HB Koge to SLAMMERS FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 favour them
-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 3–1 0–3 0–0 0–4 2–1 1–1 1–4 0–5 0–4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2nd LA Breakers FC 10th Rebels SC 14th LV Heat Surf 12th Beach Futbol Club 11th Arizona Arsenal 16th Legends FC Del Mar 6th SLAMMERS FC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:30 PM
SLAMMERS FC
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +14
Home
Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco)
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.95 2.59 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM
LAFC
9th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.98 2.49 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Eagles SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 2.42 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 2.41 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.69 2.33 Swing game
Sun Mar 28
02:15 PM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 2.18 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
11th · 1-2-1 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.19 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
LV Heat Surf
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.19 Swing game
Sat May 8
12:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.17 2.11 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -16
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.71 2.15 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Blues
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.27 2.10 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.44 2.05 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 140+14 93.00 WWW -1.34 +0.18 98% 1.7
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 134+9 123.00 WWWW -1.08 +0.33 69% 3.9
3 SLAMMERS FC 5410 151+14 132.60 DWWWW -0.42 +0.08 97% 2.1
4 Phoenix Rising FC 4301 113+8 92.25 WLWW -0.59 +0.14 51% 4.7
5 Legends FC 4301 86+2 92.25 WWLW -0.32 +0.10 15% 6.8
6 Legends FC Del Mar 3201 94+5 62.00 WLW -0.49 +0.08 27% 6.0
7 Blues 2101 82+6 31.50 WL -0.83 +0.08 37% 5.5
8 Eagles SC 3111 54+1 41.33 LWD -0.37 +0.11 2% 9.5
9 LAFC 4121 76+1 51.25 DDWL +0.08 -0.00 3% 8.7
10 LA Breakers FC 4121 44+0 51.25 WDDL -0.21 +0.12 1% 10.2
11 Beach Futbol Club 4121 57-2 51.25 DDWL +0.02 +0.19 0% 11.2
12 LV Heat Surf 5203 79-2 61.20 LLWWL +0.47 -0.15 1% 9.6
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5113 39-6 40.80 LDLWL +0.91 -0.34 0% 11.6
14 Rebels SC 3012 28-6 10.33 LLD -0.15 +0.12 0% 14.4
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4013 113-12 10.25 LLDL +0.78 -0.09 0% 15.3
16 Arizona Arsenal 5014 218-16 10.20 LLLDL +0.37 +0.03 0% 15.9
17 Sporting California USA 4004 218-16 00.00 LLLL +1.02 -0.14 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.