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Utah Royals FC-AZ

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Utah Royals FC - AZ (all teams)

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13th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-6 goal diff · 3–9
LDLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.7
+0.91 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 0.80 PPG
vs
Legends FC Del Mar
6th · 2.00 PPG

Bell Road Sports Complex, Field 16 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.0 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so farUtah Royals FC-AZLegends FC Del Mar
Position13th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-32-0-1
Points per game0.802.00
Goals for / game0.63.0
Goals against / game1.81.3
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)L W L D LW L W
Biggest win3–0 at Phoenix Rising FC5–0 at Rebels SC
Worst loss0–4 at San Diego Surf0–4 vs SLAMMERS FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.51+0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.91-0.49

Common opponents: SLAMMERS FC — we 0–0; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC Del Mar score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at San Diego Surf, 0–0 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–2 vs LV Heat Surf, 0–3 vs LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Royals FC-AZ – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.17 PPG
13th— holds 12th▲ up 1 13th— holds
Draw
0.83 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.67 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 20%
  13. 13th 28%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.35 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.45) 47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+2.20) 3rd (2.05) 47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+1.80) 2nd (2.34) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Phoenix Rising FC 2.25 (+1.45) 4th (1.93) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+1.45) 7th (1.67) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Legends FC Del Mar 2.00 (+1.20) 6th (1.76) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Blues 1.50 (+0.70) 5th (1.81) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Eagles SC 1.33 (+0.53) 9th (1.36) 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 LAFC 1.25 (+0.45) 8th (1.45) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 LA Breakers FC 1.25 (+0.45) 11th (1.27) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 Beach Futbol Club 1.25 (+0.45) 12th (1.17) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
12 LV Heat Surf 1.20 (+0.40) 10th (1.35) 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Royals FC-AZ to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 4–0 0–2 0–3 4–1 0–4 3–0 7–0 Utah Royals FC-AZ 13th SLAMMERS FC 3rd LV Heat Surf 12th Phoenix Rising FC 4th Arizona Arsenal 16th Legends FC Del Mar 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.34 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.81 0.80 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
0–1 1.19 0.86 Upside
Wed Nov 18
07:45 PM
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -16
Away
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.89 0.99 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.51 0.93 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -16
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.87 1.03 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–0 1.99 1.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Blues
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.70 1.08 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Rebels SC
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.71 1.13 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
Eagles SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.89 1.11 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
11th · 1-2-1 · GD -2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.09 1.11 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.03 1.11 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
11th · 1-2-1 · GD -2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.32 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 140+14 93.00 WWW -1.34 +0.18 98% 1.6
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 134+9 123.00 WWWW -1.08 +0.33 70% 3.8
3 SLAMMERS FC 5410 151+14 132.60 DWWWW -0.42 +0.08 96% 2.1
4 Phoenix Rising FC 4301 113+8 92.25 WLWW -0.59 +0.14 52% 4.7
5 Legends FC 4301 86+2 92.25 WWLW -0.32 +0.10 13% 7.0
6 Legends FC Del Mar 3201 94+5 62.00 WLW -0.49 +0.08 27% 6.0
7 Blues 2101 82+6 31.50 WL -0.83 +0.08 36% 5.5
8 Eagles SC 3111 54+1 41.33 LWD -0.37 +0.11 2% 9.4
9 LAFC 4121 76+1 51.25 DDWL +0.08 -0.00 4% 8.5
10 LA Breakers FC 4121 44+0 51.25 WDDL -0.21 +0.12 1% 10.3
11 Beach Futbol Club 4121 57-2 51.25 DDWL +0.02 +0.19 0% 11.1
12 LV Heat Surf 5203 79-2 61.20 LLWWL +0.47 -0.15 1% 9.7
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5113 39-6 40.80 LDLWL +0.91 -0.34 0% 11.7
14 Rebels SC 3012 28-6 10.33 LLD -0.15 +0.12 0% 14.4
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4013 113-12 10.25 LLDL +0.78 -0.09 0% 15.3
16 Arizona Arsenal 5014 218-16 10.20 LLLDL +0.37 +0.03 0% 15.9
17 Sporting California USA 4004 218-16 00.00 LLLL +1.02 -0.14 0% 15.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.