San Diego Surf
ECNL Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 14 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.31 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Eagles SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | D W L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Pateadores Soccer Club | 3–1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | — | 1–2 vs Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.02 | +0.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.34 | -0.37 |
Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 6–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pleasant Valley Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 4 | 6th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 60%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
3 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 3rd hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Eagles SC 8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.31 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Rebels SC 14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 2.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Arizona Arsenal 16th · 0-1-4 · GD -16 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.77 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Phoenix Rising FC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 2.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club 11th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.65 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 28 02:15 PM |
Slammers FC HB Koge 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 2.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Legends FC 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
SLAMMERS FC 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +14 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 2.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
LV Heat Surf 12th · 2-0-3 · GD -2 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.61 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
LAFC 9th · 1-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
LA Breakers FC 10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.29 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 11:00 AM |
Blues 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.45 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | +14 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.34 | +0.18 | 97% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.08 | +0.33 | 70% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SLAMMERS FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.42 | +0.08 | 96% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Phoenix Rising FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.59 | +0.14 | 53% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Legends FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.32 | +0.10 | 13% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 at LAFC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Legends FC Del Mar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.49 | +0.08 | 27% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Phoenix Rising FC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Royals FC-AZ · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Blues | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.83 | +0.08 | 36% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eagles SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | -0.37 | +0.11 | 2% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Phoenix Rising FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LAFC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 5 | 1.25 | DDWL | +0.08 | -0.00 | 3% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | LA Breakers FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -0.21 | +0.12 | 1% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Royals FC-AZ See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Beach Futbol Club | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | DDWL | +0.02 | +0.19 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 at Blues See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LV Heat Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | +0.47 | -0.15 | 1% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Blues · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting California USA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Utah Royals FC-AZ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.91 | -0.34 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Breakers FC · Wed Nov 18 at Arizona Arsenal See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Rebels SC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | -0.15 | +0.12 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf · Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.78 | -0.09 | 0% | 15.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Arizona Arsenal | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.37 | +0.03 | 0% | 15.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs LA Breakers FC · Wed Nov 18 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ · Sat Nov 21 vs San Diego Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.02 | -0.14 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Phoenix Rising FC · Sat Nov 7 at Pateadores Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.