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SLAMMERS FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+14 goal diff · 15–1
DWWWWlast 5
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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SLAMMERS FC
3rd · 2.60 PPG
at
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco), Field 22 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.84 expected points)

Season so farSLAMMERS FCSlammers FC HB Koge
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-04-0-0
Points per game2.603.00
Goals for / game3.03.3
Goals against / game0.21.0
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W W DW W W W
Biggest win4–0 at Legends FC Del Mar4–0 at Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.61+0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42-1.08

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Slammers FC HB Koge score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 54% / draw 22% / loss 24%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Slammers FC HB Koge have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:30 PM at Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco).

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Slammers FC HB Koge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SLAMMERS FC – Slammers FC HB Koge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.33 PPG
3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.17 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

33% finish 1st
96% top 4
4% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 33%
  2. 2nd 42%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.45) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.40) 3rd (2.05) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SLAMMERS FC to Slammers FC HB Koge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 favour them
+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–3 1–3 4–0 0–0 4–1 1–1 1–2 4–0 5–0 SLAMMERS FC 3rd LV Heat Surf 12th Beach Futbol Club 11th Arizona Arsenal 16th Legends FC Del Mar 6th LA Breakers FC 10th Rebels SC 14th Slammers FC HB Koge 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 9th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:30 PM
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco)
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.84 2.47 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
1–0 2.17 2.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM
Eagles SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.39 2.42 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -16
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.85 2.47 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LAFC
9th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.36 2.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–1 1.97 2.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.21 2.32 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Rebels SC
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
2–0 2.64 2.34 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Blues
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.86 2.31 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.36 2.31 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
3–0 2.85 2.34 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 140+14 93.00 WWW -1.34 +0.18 97% 1.7
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 134+9 123.00 WWWW -1.08 +0.33 68% 3.9
3 SLAMMERS FC 5410 151+14 132.60 DWWWW -0.42 +0.08 96% 2.1
4 Phoenix Rising FC 4301 113+8 92.25 WLWW -0.59 +0.14 53% 4.6
5 Legends FC 4301 86+2 92.25 WWLW -0.32 +0.10 13% 6.9
6 Legends FC Del Mar 3201 94+5 62.00 WLW -0.49 +0.08 29% 6.0
7 Blues 2101 82+6 31.50 WL -0.83 +0.08 34% 5.6
8 Eagles SC 3111 54+1 41.33 LWD -0.37 +0.11 2% 9.5
9 LAFC 4121 76+1 51.25 DDWL +0.08 -0.00 4% 8.6
10 LA Breakers FC 4121 44+0 51.25 WDDL -0.21 +0.12 1% 10.3
11 Beach Futbol Club 4121 57-2 51.25 DDWL +0.02 +0.19 0% 11.2
12 LV Heat Surf 5203 79-2 61.20 LLWWL +0.47 -0.15 2% 9.6
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5113 39-6 40.80 LDLWL +0.91 -0.34 0% 11.6
14 Rebels SC 3012 28-6 10.33 LLD -0.15 +0.12 0% 14.4
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4013 113-12 10.25 LLDL +0.78 -0.09 0% 15.3
16 Arizona Arsenal 5014 218-16 10.20 LLLDL +0.37 +0.03 0% 15.9
17 Sporting California USA 4004 218-16 00.00 LLLL +1.02 -0.14 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.