TableChase Clubs

World Class FC

ECNL Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 12 teams · World Class FC (all teams)

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3rd
2-2-0 record · 4 played
2.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 11–2
WWDDlast 4
95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1
-0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:45 PM

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World Class FC
3rd · 2.00 PPG
vs
Maryland United FC
9th · 0.83 PPG

Orangetown Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.8 against · 2.45 expected points)

Season so farWorld Class FCMaryland United FC
Position3rd9th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-01-2-3
Points per game2.000.83
Goals for / game2.81.2
Goals against / game0.52.0
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D D W WL L W L D
Biggest win7–0 at SJEB FC2–0 vs Delaware FC
Worst loss—1–4 vs STA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.15-0.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.61-0.24

Common opponents: Delaware FC — we 2–0; they 2–0. SJEB FC — we 7–0; they 0–2. Potomac Soccer Association — we 2–2; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at PSA Monmouth.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Maryland United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (World Class FC – Maryland United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.20 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.20 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Draw
1.80 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.60 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
95% top 4
5% below the top 4
3.1 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 30%
  4. 4th 31%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 STA 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.49) 58 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
2 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2.25 (+0.25) 4th (2.00) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link World Class FC to Maryland United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–1 2–0 0–2 7–0 2–0 1–2 1–1 2–1 2–0 0–2 4–1 World Class FC 3rd Potomac Soccer Asso… 8th Delaware FC 6th SJEB FC 10th Match Fit Surf 11th STA 1st Maryland United FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:45 PM
Maryland United FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.45 2.09 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 2.11 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Glenelg Country School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 2.10 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
04:45 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 2.05 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Pipeline SC
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +14
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.52 1.99 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
06:00 PM
Match Fit Surf
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -15
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.74 2.07 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD
STA
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.94 1.97 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 2.00 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Match Fit Surf
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -15
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.61 2.05 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
SJEB FC
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.70 2.10 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 2.05 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
PSA Monmouth
12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–0 2.52 2.08 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 1-3-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.29 2.10 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Maryland United FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.26 2.10 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.30 2.11 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Pipeline SC
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +14
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 2.07 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
STA
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 2.03 Upside
Sat May 22
10:30 AM
Delaware FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.89 2.02 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 STA 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.57 -0.07 100% 1.2
2 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 115+6 92.25 LWWW -0.10 -0.05 93% 3.2
3 World Class FC 4220 112+9 82.00 WWDD -0.61 +0.03 95% 3.1
4 Baltimore Celtic 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL -0.25 +0.08 8% 6.1
5 Pipeline SC 7412 228+14 131.86 DWLWL +0.11 -0.17 97% 2.8
6 Delaware FC 6303 78-1 91.50 WLLWW +0.09 -0.02 6% 6.0
7 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 3111 78-1 41.33 DWL -0.68 +0.18 1% 7.6
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6132 911-2 61.00 DWLDL -0.00 +0.07 1% 7.6
9 Maryland United FC 6123 712-5 50.83 DLWLL -0.24 +0.20 0% 9.3
10 SJEB FC 6114 620-14 40.67 DLLLW +0.51 -0.00 0% 10.7
11 Match Fit Surf 6114 318-15 40.67 DLLWL +0.30 +0.11 0% 11.3
12 PSA Monmouth 3012 39-6 10.33 LLD +0.70 -0.01 0% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.