Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
ECNL Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 12 teams · Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.8 against · 2.02 expected points)
| Season so far | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L | L W D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Match Fit Surf | 4–3 vs PSA Monmouth |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at Delaware FC | 0–2 vs Delaware FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.92 | -0.37 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.10 | -0.68 |
Common opponents: Delaware FC — we 2–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 17% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Penn Fusion Soccer Academy – Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 5%
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 32%
- 4th 34%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STA | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.49) | 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Penn Fusion Soccer Academy to Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 10th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.02 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Baltimore Celtic 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home USTC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.16 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
SJEB FC 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Home Scott Auto Field |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–1 | 2.65 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 04:45 PM |
World Class FC 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
PSA Monmouth 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home Scott Auto Field |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Maryland United FC 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home Scott Auto Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.37 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
STA 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home Scott Auto Field |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 2.06 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
STA 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Delaware FC 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
SJEB FC 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
World Class FC 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Maryland United FC 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Pipeline SC 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.31 | 1.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.30 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 1-3-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Match Fit Surf 11th · 1-1-4 · GD -15 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.00 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | STA | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.57 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.10 | -0.05 | 93% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | World Class FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 8 | 2.00 | WWDD | -0.61 | +0.03 | 94% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Oct 25 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Baltimore Celtic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.25 | +0.08 | 8% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pipeline SC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 13 | 1.86 | DWLWL | +0.11 | -0.17 | 97% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Delaware FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | WLLWW | +0.09 | -0.02 | 7% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC · Sun Oct 25 at STA · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | -0.68 | +0.18 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC · Sun Nov 1 at STA See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Potomac Soccer Association | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | DWLDL | -0.00 | +0.07 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 8 at STA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Maryland United FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | DLWLL | -0.24 | +0.20 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SJEB FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLLW | +0.51 | -0.00 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Match Fit Surf | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.30 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | PSA Monmouth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.70 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.