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Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

ECNL Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 12 teams · Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+6 goal diff · 11–5
LWWWlast 4
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
2nd · 2.25 PPG
at

Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.8 against · 2.02 expected points)

Season so farPenn Fusion Soccer AcademyPhiladelphia Ukrainian Nationals
Position2nd7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-1-1
Points per game2.251.33
Goals for / game2.82.3
Goals against / game1.32.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W LL W D
Biggest win3–0 at Match Fit Surf4–3 vs PSA Monmouth
Worst loss2–3 at Delaware FC0–2 vs Delaware FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.92-0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10-0.68

Common opponents: Delaware FC — we 2–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 17% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Penn Fusion Soccer Academy – Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3
Loss
1.80 PPG
5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 34%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 STA 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.49) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Penn Fusion Soccer Academy to Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
0 favour them
+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–0 3–1 2–1 3–3 3–0 0–2 3–1 5–0 3–4 2–0 6–0 Penn Fusion Soccer … 2nd Delaware FC 6th Potomac Soccer Asso… 8th Match Fit Surf 11th Pipeline SC 5th SJEB FC 10th PSA Monmouth 12th Philadelphia Ukrain… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.02 2.20 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Baltimore Celtic
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
USTC
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 2.20 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
SJEB FC
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Home
Scott Auto Field
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.65 2.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
04:45 PM
World Class FC
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 2.11 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
PSA Monmouth
12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Scott Auto Field
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.15 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Maryland United FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Home
Scott Auto Field
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.37 2.17 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
STA
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
Scott Auto Field
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 2.06 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Baltimore Celtic
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 2.05 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
TBD
STA
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.94 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Delaware FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.99 1.95 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM
SJEB FC
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 1.98 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
World Class FC
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 1.94 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Maryland United FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.95 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Pipeline SC
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +14
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.31 1.92 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.30 1.94 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
PSA Monmouth
12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 1.95 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association
8th · 1-3-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 1.96 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Match Fit Surf
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -15
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.71 2.00 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 STA 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.57 -0.07 100% 1.2
2 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 4301 115+6 92.25 LWWW -0.10 -0.05 93% 3.2
3 World Class FC 4220 112+9 82.00 WWDD -0.61 +0.03 94% 3.0
4 Baltimore Celtic 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL -0.25 +0.08 8% 6.1
5 Pipeline SC 7412 228+14 131.86 DWLWL +0.11 -0.17 97% 2.8
6 Delaware FC 6303 78-1 91.50 WLLWW +0.09 -0.02 7% 6.0
7 Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 3111 78-1 41.33 DWL -0.68 +0.18 1% 7.5
8 Potomac Soccer Association 6132 911-2 61.00 DWLDL -0.00 +0.07 1% 7.5
9 Maryland United FC 6123 712-5 50.83 DLWLL -0.24 +0.20 0% 9.4
10 SJEB FC 6114 620-14 40.67 DLLLW +0.51 -0.00 0% 10.7
11 Match Fit Surf 6114 318-15 40.67 DLLWL +0.30 +0.11 0% 11.3
12 PSA Monmouth 3012 39-6 10.33 LLD +0.70 -0.01 0% 9.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.