STA

ECNL Boys · North Atlantic BU14 · 12 teams · STA (all teams)

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1st

4-0-0 record · 4 played

3.00 points per game

+15 goal diff · 17–2

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-0.57 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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STA
1st · 3.00 PPG

PSA Monmouth
12th · 0.33 PPG

The Ranney School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

84% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.0 against · 2.61 expected points)

Season so far	STA	PSA Monmouth
Position	1st	12th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-0	0-1-2
Points per game	3.00	0.33
Goals for / game	4.3	1.0
Goals against / game	0.5	3.0
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W	D L L
Biggest win	8–0 at Match Fit Surf	—
Worst loss	—	0–5 vs Pipeline SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.93	-0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.57	+0.70

Common opponents: Pipeline SC — we 3–1; they 0–5.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
PSA Monmouth concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs Pipeline SC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at The Ranney School .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PSA Monmouth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (STA – PSA Monmouth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.40 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

85% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 85%
2nd 11%
3rd 3%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link STA to PSA Monmouth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 favour them

+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 11th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	PSA Monmouth 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6	Away far trip The Ranney School · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.61	2.92	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Delaware FC 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -1	Home Central Park	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	2–0	2.41	2.84	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1	Home Central Park	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.69	2.82	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Baltimore Celtic 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0	Home Central Park	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.60	2.79	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM	Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 1-3-2 · GD -2	Home Central Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.57	2.76	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 TBD	World Class FC 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.85	2.67	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6	Away far trip Scott Auto Field	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.83	2.60	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Delaware FC 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -1	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–0	2.21	2.56	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.53	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Match Fit Surf 11th · 1-1-4 · GD -15	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.88	2.55	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Maryland United FC 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.70	2.56	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Pipeline SC 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +14	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.89	2.52	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.52	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM	SJEB FC 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14	Away far trip Tuckahoe Farm	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–0	2.77	2.53	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	PSA Monmouth 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–0	2.75	2.55	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 1-3-2 · GD -2	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	2–1	2.39	2.54	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Baltimore Celtic 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.40	2.53	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	World Class FC 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +9	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.58	2.49	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

STA

+15

3.00

WWWW

-0.57

-0.07

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Delaware FC (6th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SJEB FC (10th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	4–0	89%
·	Sat May 1	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat May 8	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat May 15	at	World Class FC (3rd)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

2.25

LWWW

-0.10

-0.05

93%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Delaware FC (6th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	3–1	85%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	World Class FC (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	STA (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	STA (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SJEB FC (10th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 8	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

World Class FC

2.00

WWDD

-0.61

+0.03

94%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SJEB FC (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Oct 25 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	STA (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat May 8	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 15	vs	STA (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 22	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Baltimore Celtic

2.00

WWL

-0.25

+0.08

6.0

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	STA (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–2	38%
·	Sat May 1	at	World Class FC (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 8	vs	STA (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pipeline SC

+14

1.86

DWLWL

+0.11

-0.17

97%

2.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	STA (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	SJEB FC (10th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	STA (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Delaware FC (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat May 1	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat May 8	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat May 15	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Delaware FC

-1

1.50

WLLWW

+0.09

-0.02

6.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC · Sun Oct 25 at STA · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	STA (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	STA (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 16	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 22	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun May 23	at	SJEB FC (10th)	1–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals

-1

1.33

DWL

-0.68

+0.18

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	4–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SJEB FC (10th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC · Sun Nov 1 at STA See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	STA (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	World Class FC (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	STA (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun May 2	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Potomac Soccer Association

-2

1.00

DWLDL

-0.00

+0.07

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 8 at STA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	STA (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–1	41%
·	Sat May 1	vs	STA (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sat May 8	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 16	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 22	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Maryland United FC

-5

0.83

DLWLL

-0.24

+0.20

9.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SJEB FC (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	STA (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	STA (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 15	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SJEB FC

-14

0.67

DLLLW

+0.51

-0.00

10.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	STA (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Delaware FC (6th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	STA (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun May 2	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 15	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 22	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf

-15

0.67

DLLWL

+0.30

+0.11

11.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Delaware FC (6th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	STA (1st)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	STA (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–4	3%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat May 8	at	SJEB FC (10th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA Monmouth (12th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat May 22	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA Monmouth

-6

0.33

LLD

+0.70

-0.01

9.3

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	World Class FC (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pipeline SC (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	STA (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Match Fit Surf (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Pipeline SC (5th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC (3rd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Baltimore Celtic (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Potomac Soccer Association (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	STA (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Delaware FC (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SJEB FC (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun May 16	at	Match Fit Surf (11th)	1–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.