Forward Madison
Elite Academy League National · Mid-America U14 · 13 teams · Forward Madison (all teams)
Next game — Sat Apr 10, 12:00 AM
TBD, TBD ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.2 against · 1.87 expected points)
| Season so far | Forward Madison | North Shore United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-1 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 9.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L | L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at JaHBat | 0–9 vs FC Stars |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.64 | -1.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.64 | +1.96 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
North Shore United Soccer Club average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 1.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
North Shore United Soccer Club concede 9.0/game; worst result 0–9 vs FC Stars.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 17% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 AM at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Orland Park Sting FC sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Orland Park Sting FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the North Shore United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Forward Madison – North Shore United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Apr 5 – Sun Apr 11); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 5 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 5 |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 5 | 8th▲ up 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 28%
- 9th 27%
- 10th 10%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 1%
- 13th 19%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Stars | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (3.00) | 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Croatian Eagles SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.76) | 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | JaHBat | 3.00 (+3.00) | 5th (2.42) | 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | USA of Indiana | 2.33 (+2.33) | 3rd (2.49) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Chicago Empire FC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 6th (1.50) | Win next game |
| 6 | Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club | 1.50 (+1.50) | 7th (1.50) | Win next game |
| 7 | Hoosier FC | 0.50 (+0.50) | 10th (0.68) | A point next game |
| 8 | Indy Premier SC | 0.33 (+0.33) | 11th (0.43) | Already ahead |
| 9 | Chicago Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (2.45) | Already ahead |
| 10 | FC1 Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.21) | Already ahead |
| 11 | Orland Park Sting FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 13th (0.00) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
8 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.48 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
North Shore United Soccer Club 13th · 0-0-1 · GD -9 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
3–2 | 1.87 | 0.93 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Croatian Eagles SC 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 0.78 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Stars | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -1.96 | — | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2 | Croatian Eagles SC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.04 | -1.52 | 85% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at North Shore United Soccer Club · Sun Apr 25 vs Forward Madison · Sat May 15 at North Shore United Soccer Club See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | JaHBat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.64 | -0.98 | 50% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Dec 29 vs North Shore United Soccer Club · Wed Dec 30 at FC1 Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | USA of Indiana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -1.18 | -1.33 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Apr 11 at Indy Premier SC · Sun Apr 25 vs Hoosier FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chicago Empire FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.12 | — | 0% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.42 | — | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Hoosier FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 | 0.50 | DDLL | +0.59 | +0.04 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Indy Premier SC · Sun Apr 25 at USA of Indiana See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indy Premier SC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.24 | +0.50 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Hoosier FC · Sun Apr 11 vs USA of Indiana See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Chicago Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -1.96 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs North Shore United Soccer Club See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC1 Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.64 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Wed Dec 30 vs JaHBat See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
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| 11 | Orland Park Sting FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.00 | — | 0% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 12 | Forward Madison | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.64 | -0.48 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 10 at North Shore United Soccer Club · Sun Apr 25 at Croatian Eagles SC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | North Shore United Soccer Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.96 | +0.40 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Croatian Eagles SC · Sat Nov 14 at Chicago Rush · Tue Dec 29 at JaHBat See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.