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Laguna United

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · Laguna United (all teams)

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16th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-11 goal diff · 2–13
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.4
+0.92 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Laguna United
16th · 0.00 PPG
at
Inland Surf
11th · 1.00 PPG

Central City Park #2, Central City Park Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 2.0 for, 3.2 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so farLaguna UnitedInland Surf
Position16th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-0-2
Points per game0.001.00
Goals for / game0.72.0
Goals against / game4.33.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L LL W L
Biggest win—2–1 vs California Football Academy
Worst loss0–5 vs ALBION SC Riverside1–6 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.68-0.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.92-0.15

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Inland Surf concede 3.7/game; worst result 1–6 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs ALBION SC Riverside.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Central City Park #2.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC San Diego sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC San Diego on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Inland Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Laguna United – Inland Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
16th— holds 15th▲ up 1 16th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
13th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 4 16th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
16th— holds 15th▲ up 1 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 25%
  16. 16th 32%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+2.50) 1st (2.32) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.15) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.10) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+2.33) 5th (2.09) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 BOCA OC 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.12) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.67 (+1.67) 6th (1.75) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 CITY SC San Marcos 1.33 (+1.33) 7th (1.74) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+1.33) 10th (1.04) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9 City SC - San Diego 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.50) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 Reds FC 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.36) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Inland Surf 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (0.99) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+1.00) 15th (0.63) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
13 Strikers FC North 0.33 (+0.33) 13th (0.79) A point next game
14 California Football Academy 0.00 (+0.00) 12th (0.91) Already ahead
15 ALBION SC San Diego 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.63) Already ahead

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Inland Surf
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
Central City Park #2
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.81 0.20 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Away
San Bernardino Valley College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.15 0.19 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
California Football Academy
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 0.30 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.31 0.30 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 0.31 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 0.41 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Reds FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 0.42 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.13 0.48 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 0.57 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
9th · 1-0-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 0.56 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.15 0.53 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -10
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 0.58 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 92% 2.2
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 74% 3.4
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 64% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 62% 3.9
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 68% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 18% 6.3
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 18% 6.2
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.0
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 4% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.9
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.4
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.3
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.8
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.1
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.