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Elite FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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8th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
-6 goal diff · 6–12
DLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Elite FC
8th · 1.33 PPG
vs

Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park, Field #3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.8 against · 0.52 expected points)

Season so farElite FCFLYTE SC- Inland Empire
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-13-1-0
Points per game1.332.50
Goals for / game2.03.5
Goals against / game4.01.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L DD W W W
Biggest win4–3 at Inland Surf6–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego
Worst loss0–7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.97+1.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.04+0.07

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    CITY SC San Marcos sit 7th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above CITY SC San Marcos on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 5
Win
1.75 PPG
6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 9th▼ down 1
Draw
1.25 PPG
8th— holds 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 23%
  11. 11th 20%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+1.17) 1st (2.32) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.17) 2nd (2.15) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.17) 4th (2.10) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+1.00) 5th (2.09) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 BOCA OC 2.33 (+1.00) 3rd (2.12) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.67 (+0.34) 6th (1.75) A point next game
7 CITY SC San Marcos 1.33 (+0.00) 7th (1.74) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 1–6 3–3 2–2 1–5 Elite FC 8th Inland Surf 11th Strikers FC North 13th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 2nd FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 4th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 1.13 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:30 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.58 1.02 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +6
Home
Don Lugo High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.94 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–2 2.29 1.13 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
9th · 1-0-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.67 1.08 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Reds FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.78 1.04 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.97 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Laguna United
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.70 1.04 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.63 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.20 1.02 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.03 1.09 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–5 0.29 1.04 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 90% 2.3
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 75% 3.4
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 67% 3.7
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 62% 3.9
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 67% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 17% 6.3
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 17% 6.2
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.1
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 4% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.8
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.4
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.3
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.8
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.0
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.