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California Football Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · California Football Academy (all teams)

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14th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 3–8
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.8
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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California Football Academy
14th · 0.00 PPG
vs

Aliso Niguel High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.4 against · 0.58 expected points)

Season so farCalifornia Football AcademyFLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
Position14th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-33-1-0
Points per game0.002.50
Goals for / game1.04.3
Goals against / game2.71.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L LD W W W
Biggest win—6–1 at Inland Surf
Worst loss1–4 at City SC - San Diego—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.68+1.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.01

Common opponents: City SC - San Diego — we 1–4; they 3–2. Inland Surf — we 1–2; they 6–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Strikers FC North sit 13th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Strikers FC North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (California Football Academy – FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Win
0.75 PPG
13th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 2 15th▼ down 1
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th— holds 13th▲ up 1 16th▼ down 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 18%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 7%
  16. 16th 4%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+2.50) 1st (2.32) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.15) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.10) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+2.33) 5th (2.09) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 BOCA OC 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.12) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.67 (+1.67) 6th (1.75) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 CITY SC San Marcos 1.33 (+1.33) 7th (1.74) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+1.33) 10th (1.04) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9 City SC - San Diego 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.50) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 Reds FC 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.36) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Inland Surf 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (0.99) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+1.00) 15th (0.63) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
13 Strikers FC North 0.33 (+0.33) 13th (0.79) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link California Football Academy to FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 2–3 1–2 1–6 1–2 3–3 California Football… 14th City SC - San Diego 9th Inland Surf 11th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Home
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 0.15 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:15 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 0.26 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Laguna United
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.98 0.55 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.68 0.57 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Reds FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.14 0.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.61 0.64 Upside
Sat Mar 20
08:00 AM
BOCA OC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +6
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–2 0.47 0.62 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 0.69 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.61 0.76 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.62 0.75 Upside
Sun May 2
12:05 PM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -10
Home
Vista Hermosa Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 0.84 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Away
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 0.91 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 91% 2.3
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 75% 3.3
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 67% 3.7
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 63% 3.8
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 66% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 16% 6.4
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 17% 6.2
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.1
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 3% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.8
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.3
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.2
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.9
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.1
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.