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Inland Surf

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · Inland Surf (all teams)

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11th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 6–11
LWLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.5
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Inland Surf
11th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Laguna United
16th · 0.00 PPG

Central City Park #2, Central City Park Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.0 against · 2.03 expected points)

Season so farInland SurfLaguna United
Position11th16th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-20-0-3
Points per game1.000.00
Goals for / game2.00.7
Goals against / game3.74.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L W LL L L
Biggest win2–1 vs California Football Academy—
Worst loss1–6 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire0–5 vs ALBION SC Riverside
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.88-1.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.92

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Laguna United average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Laguna United concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–5 vs ALBION SC Riverside.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 63% / draw 16% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Laguna United have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Reds FC sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Reds FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Laguna United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Inland Surf – Laguna United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 4 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 4 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 22%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+1.50) 1st (2.32) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.50) 2nd (2.15) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.50) 4th (2.10) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+1.33) 5th (2.09) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 BOCA OC 2.33 (+1.33) 3rd (2.12) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.75) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 CITY SC San Marcos 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.74) A point next game
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+0.33) 10th (1.04) A point next game
9 City SC - San Diego 1.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.50) A point next game
10 Reds FC 1.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.36) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 2nd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Laguna United
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
Central City Park #2
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.03 1.26 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -10
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.71 1.35 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
9th · 1-0-2 · GD +1
Home
Central City Park #2
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–2 0.98 1.29 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.36 1.16 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.99 1.26 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.21 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.32 1.22 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Reds FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.11 1.21 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 1.10 Upside
Sat Apr 24
05:15 PM
BOCA OC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +6
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 1.05 Upside
Tue May 25
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.17 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 92% 2.2
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 74% 3.4
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 66% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 64% 3.8
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 66% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 17% 6.3
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 17% 6.3
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.2
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 3% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.9
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.5
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.2
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.8
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.0
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.