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City SC - San Diego

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · City SC - San Diego (all teams)

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9th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
+1 goal diff · 7–6
WLLlast 3
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
+0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:50 PM

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City SC - San Diego
9th · 1.00 PPG
vs

Pine Community Park, Pine Community Park ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farCity SC - San DiegoTotal Futbol Academy - OC
Position9th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-21-2-0
Points per game1.001.67
Goals for / game2.31.7
Goals against / game2.00.7
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L L WD D W
Biggest win4–1 vs California Football Academy4–1 at Laguna United
Worst loss1–2 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.27+0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.70+0.18

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Total Futbol Academy - OC concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Elite FC sit 8th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Elite FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy - OC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC - San Diego – Total Futbol Academy - OC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
6th▲ up 3 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3
Loss
0.75 PPG
12th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 19%
  8. 8th 28%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+1.50) 1st (2.32) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.50) 2nd (2.15) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+1.50) 4th (2.10) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+1.33) 5th (2.09) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 BOCA OC 2.33 (+1.33) 3rd (2.12) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.75) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 CITY SC San Marcos 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.74) A point next game
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+0.33) 10th (1.04) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:50 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Home
Pine Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.08 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:50 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Aviara Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 1.11 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM
ALBION SC Riverside
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
UC Riverside · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.74 1.05 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Inland Surf
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
Central City Park #2
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–2 1.85 1.16 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.29 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 1.39 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +6
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.33 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.47 1.25 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 1.33 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 1.34 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Laguna United
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.47 1.42 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 1.50 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 91% 2.3
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 75% 3.3
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 67% 3.7
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 63% 3.8
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 66% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 16% 6.4
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 17% 6.2
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.1
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 3% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.8
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.3
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.2
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.9
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.1
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.