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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U13 · 16 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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3rd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+9 goal diff · 14–5
WWWDlast 4
66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8
+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2.50 PPG
at
Elite FC
8th · 1.33 PPG

Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park, Field #3 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.7 against · 2.36 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC- Inland EmpireElite FC
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-01-1-1
Points per game2.501.33
Goals for / game3.52.0
Goals against / game1.34.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D W W WW L D
Biggest win6–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego4–3 at Inland Surf
Worst loss—0–7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.21-0.97
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.07+0.04

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Elite FC concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire sit 2nd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st
66% top 4
34% below the top 4
3.8 average finish
  1. 1st 12%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+0.00) 1st (2.32) A point next game
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.50 (+0.00) 2nd (2.15) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FLYTE SC- Inland Empire to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 6–1 3–4 5–1 2–2 FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 2nd Inland Surf 11th Strikers FC North 13th Elite FC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 14th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Away
Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.36 2.47 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.11 2.24 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Palomar College Minkoff Field
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 2.13 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Laguna United
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 2.19 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 2.10 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.51 2.04 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 2.08 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 2.10 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.16 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.16 Swing game
Tue May 25
08:00 AM
BOCA OC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +6
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.23 2.10 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 182+16 102.50 WWWD -0.64 +0.03 92% 2.2
2 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4310 177+10 102.50 WWWD +0.01 -0.16 74% 3.4
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.07 -0.16 66% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 70+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.05 64% 3.8
5 BOCA OC 3210 82+6 72.33 WWD +0.50 -0.24 66% 3.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3120 52+3 51.67 WDD +0.18 -0.12 17% 6.3
7 CITY SC San Marcos 3111 104+6 41.33 LWD -0.24 -0.06 17% 6.3
8 Elite FC 3111 612-6 41.33 DLW +0.04 +0.01 0% 11.2
9 City SC - San Diego 3102 76+1 31.00 WLL +0.70 -0.23 3% 7.9
10 Reds FC 3102 66+0 31.00 LWL +0.25 -0.10 1% 8.9
11 Inland Surf 3102 611-5 31.00 LWL -0.15 +0.04 0% 11.5
12 City SC Southwest 3102 218-16 31.00 LLW +0.58 -0.02 0% 14.2
13 Strikers FC North 3012 49-5 10.33 DLL -0.72 +0.18 0% 12.8
14 California Football Academy 3003 38-5 00.00 LLL +0.53 -0.11 0% 11.8
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 111-10 00.00 LL +0.61 -0.01 0% 14.0
16 Laguna United 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.92 -0.14 0% 14.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.