El Paso Surf
Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U16 · 19 teams · El Paso Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Trailside East Park, Trailside East Upper ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.43 expected points)
| Season so far | El Paso Surf | ALBION SC Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Inter Utah SC | 5–1 at BVBIA Arizona |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Utah Athletic (North) | 1–7 at Utah Athletic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.12 | -0.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Common opponents: AZ SandSharks — we 2–0, 1–1; they 0–3. Utah Athletic (North) — we 0–2; they 1–3. Inter Utah SC — we 8–0; they 1–1, 1–2.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
ALBION SC Utah concede 2.8/game; worst result 1–7 at Utah Athletic.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Utah Athletic (North).Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Trailside East Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Utah game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Paso Surf – ALBION SC Utah) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.60 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 42%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
- 19th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 3.00 (+1.25) | 1st (2.51) | 47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 2.33 (+0.58) | 3rd (1.98) | 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link El Paso Surf to ALBION SC Utah through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.18 · 18th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
ALBION SC Utah 6th · 1-1-4 · GD -8 |
Away Trailside East Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Utah Athletic 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away Lehi High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Colorado United 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
BVBIA Las Vegas 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
BVBIA Arizona 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 01:30 PM |
BVBIA Las Vegas 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Chaparral Highschool · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
AZ SandSharks 5th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–0 | 2.08 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 05:00 PM |
BVBIA Arizona 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away Winston Reynolds Manzanita Park Field |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
BVBIA Arizona 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 2.05 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.81 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | WW | +0.14 | -0.09 | 78% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | El Paso Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.15 | -0.18 | 88% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Inter Utah SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 7 | 1.40 | DLWWL | -0.03 | +0.27 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AZ SandSharks · Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AZ SandSharks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LLDLW | +0.15 | +0.02 | 2% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inter Utah SC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWL | -0.15 | +0.51 | 0% | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | BVBIA Arizona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | -0.12 | +0.20 | 0% | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 30 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | ALBION SC Denver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sun Jan 24 at City SC NOCO · Sat Jan 30 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.20 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.10 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | City SC NOCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Jan 30 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Colorado Elevation FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Boulder County · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Colorado Rush - COS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 31 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Colorado Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Jan 24 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Colorado United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs City SC NOCO · Sun Jan 24 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at ALBION SC Denver · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at City SC NOCO See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.19 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Jan 30 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.