Denver Kickers Sports Club
Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U16 · 19 teams · Denver Kickers Sports Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 23, 12:00 AM
TBD, TBD ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.8 against · 1.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Denver Kickers Sports Club | ALBION SC Denver |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
ALBION SC Denver average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 34%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 AM at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Colorado United sit 17th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Colorado United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Denver game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Denver Kickers Sports Club – ALBION SC Denver) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Jan 18 – Sun Jan 24); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 11 | 14th▲ up 4 | 17th▲ up 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 16 | 2nd▲ up 16 | 11th▲ up 7 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 11 | 15th▲ up 3 | 17th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
19th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 5%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 7%
- 13th 7%
- 14th 8%
- 15th 7%
- 16th 6%
- 17th 4%
- 18th 2%
- 19th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.51) | Win next game |
| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 2.33 (+2.33) | 3rd (1.97) | A point next game |
| 3 | El Paso Surf | 1.75 (+1.75) | 2nd (2.05) | A point next game |
| 4 | AZ SandSharks | 1.38 (+1.38) | 9th (1.38) | A point next game |
| 5 | Inter Utah SC | 1.17 (+1.17) | 17th (0.86) | A point next game |
| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 0.67 (+0.67) | 19th (0.66) | Already ahead |
| 7 | BVBIA Arizona | 0.60 (+0.60) | 18th (0.68) | Already ahead |
| 8 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.38) | Already ahead |
| 9 | ALBION SC Denver | 0.00 (+0.00) | 14th (1.34) | Already ahead |
| 10 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0.00 (+0.00) | 16th (1.31) | Already ahead |
| 11 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0.00 (+0.00) | 13th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 12 | City SC NOCO | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 13 | Colorado Elevation FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 14 | Colorado Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.38) | Already ahead |
| 15 | Colorado Rush - COS | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 16 | Colorado Storm | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 17 | Colorado United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 15th (1.34) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
11 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 14th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM |
Colorado Storm 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Douglas County Fairgrounds |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
City SC NOCO 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Aventura Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM |
Colorado Elevation FC 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 12:00 AM |
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush - COS 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
Colorado Storm 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Colorado United 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Colorado Elevation FC 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
City SC NOCO 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 05:00 PM |
Colorado United 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Cornerstone Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush - COS 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.37 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.79 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | WW | +0.15 | -0.08 | 76% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | El Paso Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.12 | -0.17 | 89% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | AZ SandSharks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | LDLWW | -0.08 | +0.12 | 5% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC · Sun Mar 7 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Inter Utah SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 7 | 1.17 | LWWLL | -0.01 | +0.30 | 0% | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 21 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWL | -0.14 | +0.51 | 0% | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | BVBIA Arizona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | -0.10 | +0.21 | 0% | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 30 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | ALBION SC Denver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sun Jan 24 at City SC NOCO · Sat Jan 30 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.20 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.11 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | City SC NOCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Jan 30 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Colorado Elevation FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Boulder County · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Colorado Rush - COS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 31 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Colorado Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Jan 24 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Colorado United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs City SC NOCO · Sun Jan 24 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at ALBION SC Denver · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at City SC NOCO See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.18 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Jan 30 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.